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W7EES  > SWPC     25.07.19 02:13l 48 Lines 1917 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10342_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<OK2PEN<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190724/2337Z 10342@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul, 27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 438 km/s at 24/0135Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
24/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/1750Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (25 Jul, 27 Jul) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 068
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  005/005-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/15

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