| |
W7EES > SWPC 11.07.19 02:13l 50 Lines 2048 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10102_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<LU3DVN<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190710/2341Z 10102@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 695 km/s at 10/0237Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 10/0633Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 10/0623Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 8131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (13 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 068
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 008/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 45/30/15
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
