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W7EES > SWPC 10.07.19 04:13l 49 Lines 1924 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10081_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<LU3DVN<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190710/0115Z 10081@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 09/2047Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 08/2215Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
09/1846Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled levels on day one (10 Jul) and quiet levels on days
two and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 068
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/15
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