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W7EES > SWPC 08.07.19 05:04l 48 Lines 1914 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10042_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<CX2SA<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190708/0111Z 10042@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 363 km/s at 07/1627Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/2004Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jul 067
Predicted 08 Jul-10 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 07 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 006/005-008/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/30
Minor Storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/40/50
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