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OK0NAG > SOLAR 30.09.08 23:30l 78 Lines 3298 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Tue, 30 Sep 2008 22:01:42 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed values
measured by the ACE spacecraft began the period at approximately 350
km/s. At around 1130Z on 30 September a Co-rotating Interaction
Region (CIR) was observed at ACE. In association with the CIR wind
speeds gradually increased to end the period at about 500 km/s with
interplanetary magnetic field Bz values ranging between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels with a chance for
major storm periods at high latitudes for day one (01 October) of
the forecast period. The increase in activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective
position. The coronal hole is expected to remain geoeffective days
two and three (02 and 03 October) of the forecast period. However,
activity should decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance
for isolated active levels at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 066
Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 30 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 020/025-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 10/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/20/15
Minor storm 30/15/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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