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CX2SA > SWPC 26.02.18 23:23l 61 Lines 2220 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 36427_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IV3ONZ<IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180226/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:36427 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:36427_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 473 km/s at 26/1401Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
26/0123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
26/0850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 070
Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 26 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 010/014-006/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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