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OK0NAG > SOLAR 22.09.08 23:13l 72 Lines 2888 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Date: Mon, 22 Sep 2008 22:01:43 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. New Region 1002 (N25W27) emerged on the
disk as an eight-spot Dso Beta group with new Cycle 24 polarity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels. There is a chance for isolated
C-class activity with continued growth from new Region 1002.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet. A brief period of
unsettled activity was observed early on 22 September between 0000Z
and 0600Z due to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period (23 - 25
September).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 069
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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