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HP2BWJ > SWPC 27.12.17 04:26l 54 Lines 1993 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6389-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IK1NHL<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171227/0312Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6389 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 26/1945Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 25/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 704 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (29 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 072
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 072/072/071
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 010/008-007/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/10
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