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HP2BWJ > SOLAR 26.12.17 16:16l 46 Lines 1717 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 6343-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IK1NHL<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171226/1408Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:6343 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SOLAR@CEAM
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Dec 26 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 26-Dec 28 2017 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 26-Dec 28 2017
Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec 28
00-03UT 3 2 1
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 2 1 1
09-12UT 2 1 1
12-15UT 2 1 1
15-18UT 2 1 2
18-21UT 2 1 2
21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
Mid/Active 15 15 10
Mid/Minor_Storm 5 5 1
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm 1 1 1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active 15 15 15
High/Minor_Storm 25 20 15
High/Major-Severe_Storm 25 20 10
#
Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
A return to quieter geomagnetic conditions is expected over the next 24 hours. Widespread aurora beyond the Arctic Circle is not currently in the forecast.
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