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HP2BWJ > SWPC 12.12.17 03:46l 54 Lines 1940 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 5138-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity Report and Forecast
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IK1NHL<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171212/0115Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:5138 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 11/1725Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 11/1217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
11/0740Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1405 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 072
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 013/016-011/014-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/15
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