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OK0NAG > SOLAR 18.09.08 23:15l 73 Lines 2917 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Thu, 18 Sep 2008 22:01:42 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled. An
isolated active period was observed at Boulder between
18/0900-1200Z. Solar wind speed measured at the ACE spacecraft
showed a gradual decrease from approximately 410 km/s to 370 km/s
during the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet with isolated unsettled
conditions for the next three days (19-21 September).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 067
Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 18 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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