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HP2BWJ > SWPC 28.11.17 15:46l 69 Lines 2578 Bytes #999 (0) @ CEAM
BID : 3807-HP2BWJ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IQ2LB<IQ5KG<IK1NHL<CX2SA<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171128/1436Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:3807 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : SWPC@CEAM
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Nov 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2689 (N13W40, Cso/beta) underwent
slight decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (28-30
Nov).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on days one and two and increase to moderate to high
levels on day three due to effects associated with CIR arrival and CH
HSS onset. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of influences from an isolated
negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength ranged between 5 and 10
nT. The Bz component was primarily northward, but underwent a sustained
period oriented southward between 27/2300 UTC to 28/0100 UTC, reaching a
maximum deflection of -5 nT. Solar wind speed was generally between 400
and 500 km/s. The phi angle was primarily negative.
.Forecast...
Solar wind speed is anticipated to continue a slow decline on day one
as the influences of the isolated negative polarity CH HSS wane. Day two
is anticipated to see increasing solar wind speed due to a possible
glancing blow from the 25 Nov CME and the arrival of a CIR arrival
followed by a CH HSS. Recurrence data suggests speeds of 425-450 km/s;
while STEREO-A PLASTIC data observed speeds in excess of 500 km/s. Day
three is expected to see a weakening solar wind speed beginning to
decrease as CH HSS influences continue, but weaken.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to lingering CH HSS
effects.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
due to waning influences of the isolated negative polarity CH HSS. Day
two is expected to see quiet to unsettled levels early in the day,
before escalating to active conditions and likely isolated periods of
minor storming (G1-Minor) due to combined effects of a CME glancing blow
and CIR/CH HSS effects. Day three is expected to be quiet to unsettled,
with active periods likely as CH HSS influences continue but weaken.
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