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OK0NAG > SOLAR 16.09.08 23:08l 71 Lines 2908 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:01:44 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet to unsettled. An
isolated active period was observed between 16/0300-0600Z. Solar wind speed
measured at the ACE Spacecraft showed a gradual decrease from approximately
610 km/s to 530 km/s during the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet with isolated unsettled
conditions for the next three days (17-19) September.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 069
Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 16 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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