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CX2SA > SWPC 07.10.17 23:23l 61 Lines 2191 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22273-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 171007/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:22273 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:22273-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 467 km/s at 06/2101Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
06/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Oct, 09 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (10 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 080
Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 07 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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