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OK0NAG > SOLAR 07.10.17 13:49l 130 Lines 4511 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Sat, 7 Oct 2017 12:30:16 GMT
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
From: ok0nag <ok0nag>
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:Issued: 2017 Oct 07 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU280
UGEOA 30512 71007 1230/ 9930/
10072 20072 30072
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 07 Oct 2017 until 09 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 081 / AP: 005
PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 078 / AP: 003
PREDICTIONS FOR 09 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 075 / AP: 003
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. NOAA 2683 (Catania 57)
produced all of the low-level B-class flaring during the period, a B9.8
flare peaking on 06 October at 16:34UT being the strongest. It was also
the
source of a Long Duration B4.6 flare peaking at 00:28UT. Eruptive activity
to the north and northwest of NOAA 2682 (Catania 56; now beyond the Sun's
west limb) resulted in 2 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by
SOHO/LASCO C2 at resp. 09:12UT and 12:36UT on 06 October. None of the
observed CMEs had an earth-directed component. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at nominal levels.
Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on an isolated
C-class flare.
Solar wind was enhanced, probably influenced by the weak particle stream
from the small negative equatorial coronal hole (CH). Solar wind speed
reached a maximum speed around 470 km/s (DSCOVR) at the beginning of the
period, gradually declining to its current values near 410 km/s. Bz
oscillated between -5 and +6 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field was
mostly directed towards the Sun. The extension of a positive polar CH
started its transit of the Central Meridian early on 07 October and may
influence the earth environment around 10-11 October.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected, with a small chance on an isolated active interval.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 012, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71007 1230/ 06///
10026 20840 3010/ 4//// 80002 90180
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71007 1230/ 06/08 07102
10057 2//// 3//// 473// 50150 60005 46213 02000
99999
USSPS 32404 05064 02832 78010 36511 2/801 79024 44813 51307
USSPS 21305 05182 03132 77020 37012 2/801 78027 45513 51410
USSPS 81202 06016 02332 73018 35813 41301 74026 47510 2/802
UMAGF 30503 71007 1004/ 06065 1/012 21222 32310
UMAGF 31523 71007 0000/ 06009 1/010 23222 32224
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
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