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OK0NAG > SOLAR 05.10.17 13:31l 129 Lines 4356 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Thu, 5 Oct 2017 12:30:17 GMT
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:Issued: 2017 Oct 05 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU278
UGEOA 30512 71005 1230/ 9930/
10052 20052 30052
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 05 Oct 2017 until 07 Oct
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 086 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Oct 2017 10CM FLUX: 084 / AP: 010
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels. The two visible sunspot
groups, NOAA 2683 (Catania 57) and NOAA 2682 (Catania 56), produced 2 low-
level B-class flares each. NOAA 2683 displayed a moderate size increase
of
some small opposite polarity sunspots south of the main spot, whereas NOAA
2682 still features a long filament to the east and north of the main spot.
No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal
levels.
Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a small chance on a C-class
flare.
Solar wind speed varied between 360 and 380 km/s before 23UT, and between
380 and 410 km/s for the rest of the period (DSCOVR). Bz fluctuated between
-6 and +7 nT, being predominantly positive after midnight. The
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed towards the Sun.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, and is expected
to
remain so. The particle stream associated with a small negative equatorial
coronal hole is still expected to arrive at Earth, late on 05 or on 06
October. This may increase the likelihood on an active geomagnetic episode.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 029, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 71005 1230/ 04///
1//// 20870 3007/ 4//// 8//// 9////
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END
UGEOR 30512 71005 1230/ 29/07 05103
10056 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50210 60018 21609 01000
10057 2//// 3//// 474// 50320 60003 12914 02000
99999
USSPS 32404 03059 02932 78012 33710 3/802 79033 42213 5/807
USSPS 21305 03157 02842 77013 34311 2/801 78028 42613 51407
USSPS 81202 04015 02632 73016 34809 2/801 74030 43214 31305
UMAGF 30503 71005 1004/ 04061 1/010 21011 32231
UMAGF 31523 71005 0000/ 04000 1/007 23210 31033
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