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OK0NAG > SOLAR 13.09.08 00:30l 72 Lines 2843 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Fri, 12 Sep 2008 22:01:43 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Sep 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z
to 12/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 13 September.
Predominately unsettled conditions with isolated active levels are
expected for 14 September. Unsettled to active conditions with
isolated minor storming are expected for 15 September. The increase
in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 066
Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 12 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 005/008-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep-15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/40
Minor storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
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