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OK0NAG > SOLAR 06.09.17 14:39l 183 Lines 7118 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: GEOALERT SIDC
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Date: Tue, 5 Sep 2017 12:27:24 GMT
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:Issued: 2017 Sep 05 1230 UTC
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# GEOALERT message from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
GEOALERT BRU248
UGEOA 30512 70905 1230/ 9930/
12052 24052 37052
99999
PLAIN
NOTE: the above forecasts are valid from 1230UT, 05 Sep 2017 until 07 Sep
2017
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 091
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Sep 2017 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 075
COMMENT: Solar activity was at high levels with Catania group 46 (NOAA
active region 2673) producing several (10) M class flares. The strongest
flare was an M5.5 flare peaking at 20:33UT.
This region continued to grow and develop in complexity. It contains strong
mixed polarity field and further M class flares are expected from this
region with also a potential for an X class flare.
Associated to the M5.5 flare a full halo CME is visible in SoHO LASCO C2
images. The images show a first ejection front from 19:00 UT onwards which
is predominantly directed towards the South West. From 20:36UT an
additional front is first visible in the South but it expands to a full
halo CME afterwards. These are probably two separate eruptions but both
are
related to the activity in Catania group 46 (NOAA Active region 2673).
The
second eruption can be related to the dimming seen to the East of the
region ahead of the M5.5 flare.
Analysis of the coronagraph data indicates that the projected speed of
the
first ejection measures between 500 and 1000 km/s while the projected speed
of the second faster ejection is close to 1500km/s. Based on the drag based
model, arrival of the associated CME shock front can be expected around
UT
noon September 6.
As a result of the M5.5 flare and the associated CME initiation, the >10MeV
proton flux levels started rising from around 23:00UT passing the event
threshold level of 10pfu at 00:40UT. A maximum of just over 100 pfu was
reached around 7:20UT, after which a slow recovery seemed to have set in.
However, just recently levels increased over 100 pfu again. The higher
energy (>50 Mev) proton fluxes have shown little or no increase.
If further strong activity persists in Catania group 46, further and
renewed increases in proton flux levels are possible.
Solar wind conditions somewhat unexpectedly became increased again.
Yesterday afternoon, total magnetic field climbed to values of up to 9nT
with Bz variable but seeing peaks down to -7nT. After midnight, total field
recovered to nominal values below 4nT. Solar wind speed showed a steady
increase towards peak values of over 600 km/s around 1:20UT, before
declining slowly to current values of around 530 km/s.
The slow decline is expected to continue until tomorrow September 6 UT
noon, when a shock related to yesterdays CME is expected to arrive, with
Solar wind speed expected to reach 800km/s.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (local K Dourbes 1-4) with
even
an isolated minor storming episode (NOAA Kp reached 5 for the 0-3UT period)
in response to the enhanced solar wind conditions.
Initially unsettled conditions are expected until the arrival of yesterdays
CME, tomorrow September 6 UT noon, which is expected to cause some
geomagnetic storming. Storm levels may reach major or possibly severe
levels.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 129, BASED ON 14 STATIONS.
99999
UGEOI 30512 70905 1230/ 04///
10125 21832 3019/ 4//// 80205 91550
99999
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
04 1511 1530 1533 S06W13 M1.5 1N 100 46/2673
04 1805 1822 1831 ////// M1.0 46/2673
04 1846 1937 1952 ////// M1.7 46/2673 IV/1
04 1959 2002 2006 ////// M1.5 46/2673
04 2028 2033 2037 S11W16 M5.5 3B 46/2673
04 2210 2214 2219 ////// M2.1 46/2673
05 0103 0108 0111 ////// M4.2 ///////
05 0342 0351 0404 ////// M1.0 46/2673
05 0433 0453 0507 ////// M3.2 46/2673 IV/1
05 0633 0640 0643 ////// M3.8 46/2673
END
UGEOR 30512 70905 1230/ 05/08 05107
10046 2//// 3//// 4452/ 50660 60038 32007 29613
10047 2//// 3//// 4642/ 50680 60029 40514 15000
10048 2//// 3//// 471// 50010 60001 38205 00000
10049 2//// 3//// 4422/ 50030 60003 36810 00000
10050 2//// 3//// 4321/ 50020 60002 14719 00000
10051 2//// 3//// 410// 50010 60001 10817 00000
10052 2//// 3//// 4201/ 50010 60004 15212 00000
99999
USSPS 31405 05085 14832 46066 32007 55438 47068 40514 44629 48001 38205
1/901 49003 36810 24403 50002 14719 22302 51001 10817 0/101 52001 15212
01204
USSPS 32404 03057 08722 67008 20811 21409 68066 12214 57618 69003 35406
21303 70004 34010 21406 71000 17718 0/101
USSPS 21305 03146 11742 72001 16919 0/101 69098 11915 57633 68015 20510
24421 71006 34511 01206 70007 35507 11306
USSPS 81202 04045 11932 64007 36408 11304 65007 35210 01205 62058 30508
57428 63071 11014 44630 66004 16219 0/102
UMAGF 30503 70905 1004/ 04068 1/034 21223 34543
UMAGF 31523 70905 0000/ 04004 1/019 24322 32345
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