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CX2SA > SWPC 12.08.17 23:25l 60 Lines 2194 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16467-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA
Sent: 170812/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:16467 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:16467-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2017 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 736 km/s at 12/1100Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 12/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
12/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 920 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (15 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 070
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 070/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 010/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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