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Date: Sat, 6 Sep 2008 22:02:09 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with some isolated unsettled
to active periods. Solar wind speed as observed by ACE continued to
be elevated throughout the day, with values ranging between 480 to
560 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first day (07 September)
and is expected to be predominantly quiet for the second and third
days (08-09 September).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 066
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/20/05
Minor storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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