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Date: Fri, 15 Aug 2008 22:01:42 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (16-18 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (16 August). An increase to quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods is expected on days two and
three (17-18 August) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 065
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 005/005-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/30
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/50
Minor storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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