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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Sat, 9 Aug 2008 22:01:43 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk
remains spotless. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. As the
recurrent coronal hole high speed wind stream approaches, the solar
wind data as measured at the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a
co-rotating interaction region around 08/2300Z. The velocity,
density, and temperature began to rise, the Bt averaged around +20
nT and the Bz fluctuated between +18 nT to -12 nT. Solar wind
speeds continue to slowly rise and are averaging around 620 km/s at
the time of this posting.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled with isolated periods of
active conditions possible for day one (10 August). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two (11 August), with mostly
quiet conditions expected for day three (12 August) as the effects
of the coronal hole decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 066
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
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