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OK0NAG > SOLAR 14.07.08 00:15l 74 Lines 2889 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Sun, 13 Jul 2008 22:01:55 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
velocities measured at the ACE Spacecraft ranged from approximately
650 - 700 km/s. This increase is in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on days
one and two (14-15 July). The activity is in response to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on day three (16 July) as the effects of the coronal hole
decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 065
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 016/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 010/010-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
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