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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2008 22:01:56 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
in the past 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind signatures
observed at ACE are indicating the onset of a high speed stream from
a recurrent coronal hole. The velocity has showed a steady increase
from around 340 to 450 km/s, and the IMF Bz component has ranged
from +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes for 13 July.
Predominately unsettled conditions are expected for 14-15 July as
the high speed stream continues to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 066
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 066/066/066
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 004/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 015/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 15/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/30/25
Minor storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
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