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Subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2007 22:02:16 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
X-asg-orig-subj: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2007 Dec 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2007
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. These elevated
conditions were due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft peaked late yesterday between 18/1900Z
and 19/0100Z with maximum values around 700 km/s. Since then solar
wind speed has been steadily declining with values around 600 km/s
at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels. However,
there is a chance for isolated active conditions on 20 and 21
December, due to the continued influence of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 075
Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Dec 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 010/010-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec-22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like
to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in
your account, go to: https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov. For problems, contact:
mailto:pss.help@noaa.gov.
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