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Date: Sun, 22 Jun 2008 22:01:50 -0000
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Subject: Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)
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:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2008 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No flares were
observed during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities gradually
decayed from a peak of about 500 km/s at the beginning of the period
to near 400 km/s at forecast issue time. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for days one and two (23 and
24 June). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled
conditions on day three (25 June) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream that will rotate into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 065
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 065/065/065
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
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