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CX2SA > SWPC 06.12.12 23:23l 65 Lines 2269 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 238-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<HB9ON<IW2OHX<OE6XPE<DB0RES<WA7V<CX2SA
Sent: 121206/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:238 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:238-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. A large filament eruption was observed in the southwest quadrant
from 06/0030Z to 06/0400Z. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2
and C3 imagery. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, all of which are showing signs of decay.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 361 km/s at
06/0024Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (07 Dec and 08
Dec) due to possible CME effects. A return to quiet levels is expected
on day three(09 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 097
Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 06 Dec 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 006/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 25/25/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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