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CX2SA > SWPC 18.11.12 23:23l 70 Lines 2650 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 623_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IZ3LSV<F1OYP<VE2PKT<CX2SA
Sent: 121118/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:623 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:623_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/0407Z from Region 1615 (N07W34). Consolidation and moderate growth
was observed in Region 1619 (N10E03) which occasionally displayed
beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov) with a
chance for isolated moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
at ACE reached 451 km/s at 18/1301Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/2028Z.
The maximum southward component of Bz remained between +/- 4 nT during
the period. A new coronal hole was identified in the southern hemisphere
near center disk. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak of 1512 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21
Nov) with the exception of a possible unsettled period late on 19 Nov or
early on 20 Nov with the arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed solar
wind stream.
III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 141
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 006/006-007/007-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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