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OK0NAG > SOLAR 03.11.12 03:31l 108 Lines 4172 Bytes #999 (0) @ EU
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Subject: Monthly Ri Report
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#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# MONTHLY REPORT ON THE INTERNATIONAL SUNSPOT NUMBER #
# from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
Provisional International monthly mean Sunspot Number for
October 2012 : 53.3 (fifty-three point three)
Maximum : 83 on 15 // Minimum : 28 on 7
Provisional daily International Sunspot Numbers for October 2012 :
1.. 54 6.. 30 11.. 51 16.. 80 21.. 57 26.. 54 31.. 35
2.. 51 7.. 28 12.. 58 17.. 71 22.. 59 27.. 47
3.. 44 8.. 34 13.. 56 18.. 76 23.. 64 28.. 37
4.. 43 9.. 49 14.. 66 19.. 66 24.. 66 29.. 48
5.. 42 10.. 53 15.. 83 20.. 51 25.. 55 30.. 45
68 cooperating stations on November 1, 10 UT
Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number using the last
provisional value, calculated for April 2012 : 64.6 (+-5%)
SM CM SM CM SM CM
2012 May 60 66 2012 Nov 70 82 2013 May 75 91
Jun 61 70 Dec 72 85 Jun 74 91
Jul 63 73 2013 Jan 73 87 Jul 73 92
Aug 64 75 Feb 75 89 Aug 72 91
Sep 66 77 Mar 75 90 Sep 70 91
Oct 68 79 Apr 76 91 Oct 69 91
SM : SIDC classical method : based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's
standard curves; the estimated error ranges from 7% (first month) to
35% (last month)
CM : Combined method : the combined method is a regression technique
coupling a dynamo-based estimator with Waldmeier's idea of standard
curves, due to K. Denkmayr.
ref. : K. Denkmayr, P. Cugnon, 1997 : "About Sunspot Number Medium-Term
Predictions", in "Solar-Terrestrial Prediction Workshop V", eds.
G. Heckman et al., Hiraiso Solar Terrestrial Research Center, Japan, 103
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