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IR0EQ > DX 15.11.21 20:00l 56 Lines 2346 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18266IR0EQ
Read: GUEST
Subj: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 08 - 14
Path: IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<I0OJJ
Sent: 211115/1855z @:I0OJJ.ITA.EU [Rome] $:18266IR0EQ
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Nov 15 0156 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 - 14 November 2021
Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1-Minor) at 09/1702 UTC due
to a long duration M2 flare from Region 2891 (N17, L=212, class/area
Dki/350 on 29 Oct). Region 2891 had rotated around the west limb at
the time of the event, as a result this CME was not Earth-directed.
Solar activity was low on 08 and 13 Nov. Solar activity was very low
on 10-12, 14 Nov. There were no notable CMEs observed during the
reporting period.
The greater then 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit
increased from background levels to 2.6 pfu at 09/2125 UTC. This
increase was in response to the aforementioned M2 flare from Region
2891. Proton flux values remained below S1 (Minor) levels throughout
the reporting period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reach
high levels on 08-09 and 13-14 Nov. A peak flux of 3,319 pfu was
observed at 08/1850 UTC by the GOES-16 spacecraft. Moderate levels
were observed throughout the remainder of the reporting period.
Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels on 08-10 Nov due
to residual solar wind effects from the CME that arrived on 04 Nov.
Quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the
reporting period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 November - 11 December 2021
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flaring throughout the outlook period. There is a chance for
moderate levels on 20 Nov - 03 Dec with the return of M-flare
producing Region 2891 to the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 15-16 Nov with moderate levels
anticipated throughout the reminder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on
16-17, 28-29 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the
outlook period.
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