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LU9DCE > NEWS 22.01.90 23:30l 242 Lines 7409 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6232_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 22-JAN
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<HB9ON<DK0WUE<PI8ZTM<PA8F<VE3CGR<VE3TOK<LU9DCE
Sent: 260122/2200Z 6232@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2025 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JAN 22 08:58:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JAN 22 08:58:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU JAN 22 08:58:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU JAN 22 08:58:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC JAN 22, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY, HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
... SYNOPSIS ...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ORIGINATING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL DIG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE US GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED
STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH, INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.
... SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ...
MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY REALIZE A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC, A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.
... SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ...
A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEAST, JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE COMBINATION OF MODEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE NOSE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
MID-LEVEL JET, COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND ONSHORE FLOW MAY
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN ANY OROGRAPHICALLY
ENHANCED SHOWER. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT GRAPHICAL DEPICTION AT THIS TIME.
..MARSH/WEINMAN.. 01/22/2026
READ MORE
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SPC JAN 22, 2026 0700 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0700Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN
CA/NORTHERN BAJA COASTS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DEVELOP EAST TOWARD
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND LOWER CO VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. AS THIS
OCCURS, INCREASING MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OK/TX. AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OK
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF TX. NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT, SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY AS MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
COOL. THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
SOUTHWARD-SURGING COLD FRONT, OR WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE JUST TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 01/22/2026
READ MORE
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SPC JAN 22, 2026 0830 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0830Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY ON SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION
ATOP THE BOUNDARY AND COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHERN LA.
SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY EVEN ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WITHIN WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE COLD SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..LEITMAN.. 01/22/2026
READ MORE
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SPC JAN 22, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON DAY 4/SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS COAST. AS THIS OCCURS, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE, SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY. AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MS/AL INTO NORTHERN FL AND SOUTHERN
GA. MODEST INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
BY DAY 5/MONDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED WELL OFFSHORE THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS AND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ENVELOP MUCH OF
THE CONUS. MEAN TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, ALLOWING
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR TO FILTER SOUTHWARD EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND PRECLUDE ANY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE GULF BASIN.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MIDWEST, REDUCING FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS.
FARTHER SOUTH, DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY DRY/BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CO AND NM DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED, GIVEN BOTH
MARGINAL WIND/RH AND FUELS.
..WEINMAN.. 01/22/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE CONUS, PRECLUDING
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..WEINMAN.. 01/22/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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