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VK2AAB > USERS 11.06.09 10:16l 76 Lines 3308 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2981_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST
Subj: Re: KB2VXA> Last man etc & internet
Path: IZ3LSV<IK2XDE<DB0RES<DK0WUE<SP7MGD<VK7AX<VK2TGB<VK2IO<VK2AAB
Sent: 090610/0520Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:2981 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i $:2981_VK2
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : USERS@WW
Warren asked a question re my bulletin where I questioned the long term
existance of the internet.
In the future in a time of contraction instead of growth and in a powerdown
economy governments will be faced with controlling infrastructure maintenance
for the best benifit of the population.
For example, is there a point in making money available to maintain
interstate highways or as long distance trucks are gradually disappearing
from the roads, is it better to divert money into railways ?
The writing is already on the wall, the second hand truck market is clogged
with stock in Australia. Finance companies don't want the trucks of
defaulters.
Whether it offends your political opinions or not governments will have
to make decisions on where many types of investment are made.
eg should GM be proppted up or not ?
What sort of petrol rationing scheme should be implemented in the US ?
Mexico's Canterall is close to exhaustion and Mexico will soon stop exports
of oil to US.
What sort of petrol rationing should be implemented in Australia ?
Our oil production is depleting at 5% per year and we only produce about 45%
of our consumption. What chance will our local oil company branches have of
outbidding the US & European owners of our oil companies.
When it really gets tough should money be spent on maintaining the
telecommunications network or should a higher price be paid for diesal to
produce food ?
Should the government spend lots of money on the latest fashion in the
internet or should it be spent on irrigation in the Maurray Darling ?
Previously all these infrastructure systems were financed with credit either
by government bonds or by companies with bank loans.
In a zero growth or contraction economy interest payments are not possible.
As you are aware the credit system has crashed and is unlikley to make more
than a tentative recovery over the next few years.
The economy does not despite popular opinion run on money.
It runs on energy !
With oil and coal depletion there will be major changes in the economy.
Your next comment will be when will all this happen ?
Well, there are a number of opinions;
Oil production has not increased since late 2004.
Depending on whether you count crude oil or crudeoil and all liquids the peak
production was either 2005 or 2008.
Several senior oil field geologists and engineers believe 2008.
The OECD's International Energy Authority says we will have "delivery
difficulties" by 2013.
The oil companies say 2015 (Shell, Total & Conalco), 30 years (Exxon & Mobil).
I am going to hear a talk tomorrow by Prof Kjell Aleklett who heads the Global
Energy Systems group in the Department of Physics at the University of Uppsala,
and he is President of ASPO-International.
He and his colleagues have published widely about Peak Oil and future oil
supply forecasts, and about the rate of decline of giant oil field production.
He is coming to Australia as a plenary speaker for the Supply Chain and
Logistics Conference, SmartConference, in Sydney, June 10th 2009.
The last I read he was predicting 2010 as the peak year so I will be
interested in his latest opinion.
73 Barry VK2AAB
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