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LU9DCE > NEWS 12.11.26 12:47l 280 Lines 10157 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27865_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 12-NOV
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<VK2RZ<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261112/1130Z 27865@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU NOV 12 08:04:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU NOV 12 08:04:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU NOV 12 08:04:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU NOV 12 08:04:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC NOV 12, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST WED NOV 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...MUCH OF DELAWARE...ADJACENT
EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
...SUMMARY...
A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON.
...DISCUSSION...
DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGING, WHICH MAY HAVE REACHED
PEAK AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, A NUMBER OF DIGGING SHORT
WAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A
MORE PROMINENT, POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS MAY
ENCOMPASS MOST AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z FRIDAY.
ONE LEADING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO TURN EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE ALLEGHENY/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE UNDERGOING CONSIDERABLE
DEFORMATION AS IT PROGRESSES FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS
THAT THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INITIALLY MODEST SURFACE CYCLONE,
WHICH MAY UNDERGO NOTABLE DEEPENING DURING THE DAY WHILE
REDEVELOPING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, BEFORE
OCCLUDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INLAND OF THE COAST APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
RATHER LIMITED. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE LOWER/MID 50S F, WITHIN A CORRIDOR ALONG A WARM FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD
MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG WHEN COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL
COOLING (INCLUDING 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -20 TO -22 C). BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THIS MAY INCLUDE BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR AND JUST
OFF THE SURFACE, AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN BENEATH THE COLD
AIR AND BOUNDARY-LAYER HUMIDITY REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MIGHT NOT BECOME MORE
THAN MODESTLY LARGE, IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
IT APPEARS AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME
CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSING
SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO. OTHERWISE, STRONGER CELLS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS, BEFORE WEAKENING BY EVENING.
..KERR/CHALMERS.. 11/12/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 12, 2026 0700 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0700Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CST THU NOV 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
ON FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
AHEAD OF THIS SECOND TROUGH, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PARTS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
OREGON COASTS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT NO
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 11/12/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 12, 2026 0830 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0830Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CST THU NOV 12 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT,
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION PANS OUT, WHICH IS MUCH FASTER
AND FURTHER SOUTH, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
IN THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. IF LATER MODELS RUNS VALIDATE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION, A MARGINAL MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS, MAINLY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 11/12/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 12, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CST THU NOV 12 2026
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WITHIN AREAS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY, COULD HAVE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FROM MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. ON THOSE DAYS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY OFFSHORE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
FURTHER WEST ON TUESDAY/DAY 6, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND ARIZONA DURING THE DAY, AND IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY
NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT IT
APPEARS THE TROUGH IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD MOVE INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
IN SPITE OF THE CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN U.S.
DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD, PREDICTABILITY CONCERNING SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST WED NOV 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED WITH A
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US, RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TROUGHING MOVING ONTO WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKS
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL.
POST-FRONTAL DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE AFTERNOON
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH. RH WILL DROP TO 25-40% BEHIND THE FRONT COINCIDING WITH
PEAK HEATING AND LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER. NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 8-15 MPH AND MINIMUM RH OF 20-35% WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI,
AND INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS, AND EAST TEXAS.
..NAUSLAR.. 11/12/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST WED NOV 11 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD, DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN US WITH MULTIPLE
UPPER LOWS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST ON DAY 2/FRIDAY. NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST BRINGING RAIN
AND SNOW TO MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
COLDER, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN US
AMID THE CONTINUED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING.
DRY AND BREEZY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ON DAY 2/FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN DAY
1/THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST-NORTH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 8-15 MPH AND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH REMAIN LIKELY. MINIMUM RH WILL ONCE AGAIN
RANGE FROM 25-40% ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DROP TO
AROUND 20% IN/AROUND THE ARKLATEX AREA. LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY, BUT WITH A FORECAST OF WEAKER WINDS AND LACK OF OVERLAP
OF ELEVATED WINDS/RH AND RECEPTIVE FUELS, AN ELEVATED AREA WAS NOT
INTRODUCED.
..NAUSLAR.. 11/12/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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