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LU9DCE > NEWS 10.11.26 12:31l 230 Lines 7929 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27655_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-NOV
Path: IZ3LSV<IW8PGT<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 261110/1130Z 27655@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE NOV 10 08:25:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE NOV 10 08:25:01 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE NOV 10 08:25:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE NOV 10 08:25:01 UTC
2026.
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SPC NOV 10, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST MON NOV 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE AND AMPLIFYING POLAR BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS FORECAST
OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITHIN THAT AIR
STREAM, A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST, WHILE
AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A LOWER-LATITUDE SYSTEM OVER TX IS EXPECTED TO
DE-AMPLIFY WHILE ADVANCING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE,
A LEE CYCLONE AND ATTENDING TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST, IN TANDEM WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-AIR SYSTEM.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT
THE POLEWARD ADVANCE OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR
MASS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST
TUESDAY MORNING, AND FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST INTO SOUTHERN LA
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK
INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL WAVE. ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST, MOIST ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT STEEPENING OF
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER
SOUTH FL, SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST PBL TO
YIELD MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON WHEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
OR CENTRAL TX, NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. LIGHTNING DURATION AND COVERAGE IN
THOSE AREAS APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT GENERAL THUNDERSTORM/10%
PROBABILITY CONTOURS.
..MEAD.. 11/10/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 10, 2026 0700 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0700Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEYS.
...LOWER OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID
50S F OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALONG
AND NEAR A MOIST AXIS. NEAR THIS AXIS, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVERS
AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA, WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
NORTHERN TENNESSEE DURING THE EARLY EVENING. RRFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AT 00Z HAVE MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT WITH A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES
ARE FORECAST TO BE POOR WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR, HELPING TO
KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT LOCALIZED.
..BROYLES.. 11/10/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 10, 2026 0830 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0830Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY,
AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
STATES. DURING THE DAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD INTO FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO WEAK FOR A SEVERE
THREAT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., NO SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 11/10/2026
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CST MON NOV 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORS
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DRYING YIELDING 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AMID
MINIMUM RH OF 15-30% ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. HOWEVER, ACCORDING TO FORECAST
FIRE DANGER, ERC AND 10/100-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE
GENERALLY AROUND THE 50TH PERCENTILE, WITH FORECAST BI VALUES
BETWEEN THE 50-75TH PERCENTILES. WHILE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
WIND/RH CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE SATISFIED, LIMITED FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE RISK.
..NAUSLAR.. 11/10/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST MON NOV 09 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CONUS AMPLIFIES ON DAY 2/WEDNESDAY
WITH RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND TROUGHING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. DRIER POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON MUCH OF THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISPLACED FROM
THE LOWEST RH, AND FUELS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY RECEPTIVE ON THE
PLAINS. DRIER PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED OVERLAP OF MODERATELY RECEPTIVE FUELS
AND ELEVATED WINDS/RH, THUS PRECLUDING INTRODUCING ANY RISK AREAS AT
THIS TIME.
..NAUSLAR.. 11/10/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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