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LU9DCE > NEWS 09.11.26 13:03l 256 Lines 8194 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27487_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-NOV
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 261109/1131Z 27487@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON NOV 9 07:41:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON NOV 9 07:41:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON NOV 9 07:41:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON NOV 9 07:41:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC NOV 9, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY ACROSS THE U.S. MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
...SOUTH TEXAS...
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION AT 12Z MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
PERTURBATIONS TRACK FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALONG THE
COAST. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE FEATURES ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AREAL COVERAGE
GRADUALLY DECREASING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WHICH WOULD
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM MODES AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING, IT
APPEARS THAT OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EARLY-DAY CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO LIMIT MORE ROBUST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND AN ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/MIDLEVEL COOLING COINCIDING WITH MOIST,
ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. THOSE PROCESSES WILL YIELD WEAK
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 100-200 J/KG) WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO REACH SUFFICIENT
DEPTH FOR EPISODIC LIGHTNING ACTIVITY FROM THE COAST INLAND TO AT
LEAST THE CASCADES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOMEWHAT ANALOGOUS
TO SATURDAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE FRONT, SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MOVING ONSHORE.
...SOUTH FLORIDA...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AMIDST A MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM AND
DRY NOSE CENTERED IN THE 650-600 MB LAYER, WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS FROM REACHING SUFFICIENT DEPTH
FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.
..MEAD.. 11/09/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 9, 2026 0700 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0700Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CST MON NOV 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AT MID-LEVELS, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. WITHIN THE FLOW, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST
FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED, AND
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONTINENTAL U.S.
..BROYLES.. 11/09/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 9, 2026 0830 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0830Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CST MON NOV 09 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AT UPPER-LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
ON WEDNESDAY, AS A TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE. A STRONG WIND GUST ARE TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS NARROW NORTH-TO-SOUTH CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, NO
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
..BROYLES.. 11/09/2026
READ MORE
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SPC NOV 9, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CST MON NOV 09 2026
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ON THURSDAY/DAY 4, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN U.S., AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD
TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, BUT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL
DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY. FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE, A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
SETTLE IN OVER MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S., WHICH WILL BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST MON NOV 09 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH THE POLAR JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF STATES AND SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WEAK FORCING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN US, LEADING TO LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
SOME POCKETS OF MARGINAL (25-30%) RH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH GIVEN FUELS THAT ARE
GENERALLY NOT RECEPTIVE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT SURFACE WINDS,
NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUPINIE.. 11/09/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST MON NOV 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE POLAR JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND 20-30 MPH
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WYOMING. SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING, RH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 15-20% RANGE DUE TO MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER,
FUELS IN THE AREA ARE NOT PARTICULARLY DRY. THEREFORE, WILL FOREGO
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW, THOUGH THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
..SUPINIE.. 11/09/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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