| |
LU9DCE > NEWS 06.11.26 12:50l 254 Lines 8703 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 27165_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06-NOV
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 261106/1130Z 27165@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
__ _ _ ___ ____ ___ ____ ____ ____ ____
( ) / )( \/ _ \( \ / __)( __) ( _ \( _ \/ ___)
/ (_/\) \/ (\__ )) D (( (__ ) _) ) _ ( ) _ (\___ \
\____/\____/(___/(____/ \___)(____) (____/(____/(____/
PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI NOV 6 07:52:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI NOV 6 07:52:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI NOV 6 07:52:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI NOV 6 07:52:01 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC NOV 6, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST THU NOV 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.
...CAROLINAS/ATLANTIC COAST...
AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IS FORECAST MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A BELT OF ENHANCED
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT AND BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. THE LOW AND FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS THEY AND
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE OFFSHORE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS, ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF MID 60S TO LOW 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. ENHANCED FLOW
ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 30-40 KT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR BY LATE MORNING.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UNSEASONABLY HUMID AIR MASS, DIURNAL
HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION WILL TEND TO BE MUTED BY RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. STILL, COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST BUOYANCY (MLCAPE ~500 J/KG) SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS EASTWARD THROUGH
MIDDAY. SOME ORGANIZATION INTO LINEAR CLUSTERS OR SHORT BOWING
SEGMENTS IS POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.
ADEQUATE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM COULD ALSO SUPPORT
A BRIEF TORNADO BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...AZ...
A SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH, STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ALLOWING FOR WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK OUTSIDE
OF SPORADIC HAIL WITH AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM.
..LYONS/HALBERT-K.. 11/06/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC NOV 6, 2026 0700 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0700Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SECOND SYSTEM, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS LIFT GRADUALLY INCREASES DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM PARTS OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WESTWARD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS
FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO WEAK FOR A SEVERE THREAT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL U.S., THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 11/06/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC NOV 6, 2026 0830 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0830Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
NO SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FURTHER SOUTHWEST, AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER SOUTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAK ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, MAKING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 11/06/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC NOV 6, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2026
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN U.S., WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THIS WEAKENING TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL HELP USHER COOL AND DRY AIR
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE U.S, LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. AS
A RESULT, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW LATE IN THE DAY 4
TO 8 PERIOD.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST THU NOV 05 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MINIMAL FIRE-WEATHER THREAT IS FORECAST FOR TODAY OWING TO A LACK
OF RECEPTIVE FUELS AND RELATIVELY CALM METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. AN
EXCEPTION IS THE ONSET OF A PERIOD OF DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
OFFSHORE SANTA ANA WINDS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED CRITERIA FOR TODAY.
..HALBERT-K.. 11/06/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST THU NOV 05 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS A LOCALIZED
AREA OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOMORROW. PORTIONS OF THE SAN GABRIEL,
SANTA MONICA, AND SANTA SUSANA MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH THE SAN GABRIEL
VALLEY, ARE FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE A WEAK TO MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. SUSTAINED
NORTHEASTERLY OFF-SHORE WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH (GUSTING TO 30-40
MPH) ARE EXPECTED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 15-20%. CURRENT FUELS
GUIDANCE HAS ERCS REACHING THE 90TH SEASONAL PERCENTILE FOR THE
REGION, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY CRITICALLY-LOW 10-HOUR AND 100-HOUR DEAD
FUEL MOISTURE. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE LOCAL
TERRAIN FAVORS, AND CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE INTRODUCED IF NEWER
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER OR WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..HALBERT-K.. 11/06/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
PYTHON PREPROCESSOR - DEVELOPED BY LU9DCE - VERSION 1.1 - LU9DCE.KOZOW.COM
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
