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LU9DCE > NEWS 31.10.26 13:05l 259 Lines 8603 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 26563_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31-OCT
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 261031/1130Z 26563@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT OCT 31 08:11:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT OCT 31 08:11:02 UTC 2026.
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SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT OCT 31 08:11:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT OCT 31 08:11:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC OCT 31, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY OR
TONIGHT.
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
TODAY, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE
EASTERN U.S. AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND UPPER MIDWEST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS COULD ALSO FORM IN PARTS OF ARIZONA AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TODAY OR
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
..BROYLES/WEINMAN.. 10/31/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 31, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN TEXAS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AT
LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.
...DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN, AS A SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHERN BAJA CA
ACROSS AZ DURING THE DAY AND INTO NM OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE EAST, WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF THE PHASING UPPER SYSTEM.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FROM WY INTO CO OVERNIGHT, WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN NM LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH, PRE-FRONTAL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY OVER NM
INTO THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A BIT
WARMER/MIXED. WITH 50S F DEWPOINTS, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE RRFS SOUNDINGS SHOWS AROUND 500 MLCAPE AT KABQ BETWEEN 00-02Z
PRECEDING THE WIND SHIFT, WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES INCLUDING 55 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH OVER 200 M2/S2. ALSO DEPICTED IS A
HIGH REFLECTIVELY LINE WITH VARIOUS BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN,
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM BY 00Z. LOCALLY SEVERE
GUSTS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT FROM CENTRAL NM DURING THE
EVENING INTO EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT.
DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED ANY CONVECTIVE LINE BECOMES ALONG THE
COLD FRONT, SOME QLCS-TYPE TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD MATERIALIZE.
INSTABILITY/TIME OF DAY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR, BUT A LOW-END
THREAT CORRIDOR MAY BECOME MORE APPARENT IN LATER UPDATES.
..JEWELL.. 10/31/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 31, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...AND FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT.
...DISCUSSION...
ON MONDAY, A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS, WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING FROM CO INTO KS. A LEADING
WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND INTO OK/KS DURING
THE DAY, WHILE THE SECONDARY AND STRONGER WAVE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
NORTHERN NM.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY MORNING, AND THIS WILL DEEPEN INTO NE BY 00Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW, MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CO AND WESTERN KS DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER FRONT/DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KS, WESTERN OK, AND WESTERN TX THROUGH
00Z, AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE NM
DISTURBANCE PROCEEDS EASTWARD.
WHILE AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A BROAD FETCH OF 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE LIMITED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, AND LIKELY RELEGATED TO THE
DRYLINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RELATIVELY COOL BUT MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE DAY, WITH A MINOR
CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE 850 MB WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WARM SECTOR
STORMS AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE/FRONT.
IT IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL BEGIN NEAR OR
JUST AFTER 00Z OVER WESTERN OK AND PERHAPS NORTHWEST TX, WITH
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
ACROSS OK, EASTERN KS, AND PARTS OF NORTHERN TX. MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE TOWARD THE RIO
GRANDE.
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE/WIND SHIFT WHERE UPPER 70S F
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, REDUCING INHIBITION. AMPLE TURNING WITH
HEIGHT OF THE WIND FIELDS AS WELL AS UP TO A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION, WHETHER DISCRETE OR FORMING INTO A
LINE. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO RISK BETWEEN 00-06Z.
..JEWELL.. 10/31/2026
READ MORE
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SPC OCT 31, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MS
VALLEY ON TUE/D4, WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT FROM LA TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY, SUPPORTING
RAIN AND STORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND
INTO THE TN VALLEY BY WED/D5 MORNING. THIS SETUP COULD FAVOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FOR WED/D5 INTO THU/D6, THE SYSTEM MAY TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT, AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS INTERACTS WITH AN ANTECEDENT SURFACE RIDGE,
WHICH SHOULD MINIMIZE INSTABILITY. SHEAR ALSO LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL
WITH MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE SOUTH ALOFT.
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY.
..WEINMAN.. 10/31/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY.
..WEINMAN.. 10/31/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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