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LU9DCE > NEWS 23.09.26 18:24l 246 Lines 8256 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22673_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 23-SEP
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<GB7CIP<VK2RZ<W0ARP<LU9DCE
Sent: 260923/1615Z 22673@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED SEP 23 08:27:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED SEP 23 08:27:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED SEP 23 08:27:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED SEP 23 08:27:02 UTC
2026.
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SPC SEP 23, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
AT MID-LEVELS, A LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE
TROUGH WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F, WHICH WILL HELP MLCAPE
INCREASE INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BECOMES FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND NEAR THE
TROUGH, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40
KNOT RANGE, WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS MAY SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
MULTICELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED AROUND PEAK
HEATING.
..BROYLES/THORNTON.. 09/23/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 23, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON TOMORROW (THURSDAY).HIGH
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPINGE ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHILE UPPER
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS STATES AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
MEANDERS OFF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW (THURSDAY). AN EMBEDDED
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES, PROMOTING ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT TO SUPPORT A
WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SEASONABLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH MODESTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY PROMOTE AN
INSTANCE OF HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, AN APPRECIABLE OVERLAP OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL BE LACKING OVERALL, PRECLUDING
SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/23/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 23, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
RESULTING IN THE EJECTION OF MULTIPLE PRECEDING MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY. ONE IMPULSE WILL ENCOURAGE SURFACE
LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, ALONG WITH
ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT TO ENCOURAGE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A STRONG GUST OR SPARSE INSTANCE OF
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POOR
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/23/2026
READ MORE
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SPC SEP 23, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VALID 261200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN THIS
WEEKEND IN FAVOR OF A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEXT
WEEK.AT LEAST ONE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS AND MID- TO UPPER-MS VALLEY IN THE DAYS 6-8/MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
PERIOD.DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THIS
TIME-FRAME, ENCOURAGING SEASONABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN THE
PROCESS.
AT THE VERY LEAST, MOISTURE-DRIVEN BUOYANCY AND SUBSEQUENT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER MS VALLEY NEXT
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THIS
PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE WEAK. WHILE A LOCALIZED SEVERE
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE AT SOME POINT MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, RELEVANT
DETAILS ARE TOO UNCLEAR TO PINPOINT WITH PROBABILITIES AT THIS
POINT, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF ML/AI CALIBRATED GUIDANCE.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CONUS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS AND RELATED DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND MARGINAL FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. DRY
CONDITIONS (INCLUDING RH AS LOW AS 15%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS INTERIOR
CA AND GREAT BASIN TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE DEPARTING UPPER WAVE AND LACK
OF NOTABLE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FEATURES SHOULD REDUCE THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/23/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROMOTE
AN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS IN THE
ADJACENT MID-ATLANTIC WATERS.
...NORTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN...
THE NEXT MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
D2/THURSDAY. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS EASTERN OR/WA AS
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. RESULTANT SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND AFTERNOON RH
REDUCTIONS IN THE 15-25% RANGE WITHIN A DRY AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN CA, NORTHWESTERN NV AND SOUTHEASTERN OR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FUELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CRITICALLY DRY, ANNUAL ERC VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEARING THE
80TH PERCENTILE IN SOME AREAS WHICH COULD SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD WITHIN
THE DRY AND BREEZY ENVIRONMENT.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/23/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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