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LU9DCE > NEWS 18.09.26 19:00l 363 Lines 14901 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22345_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-SEP
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260918/1645Z 22345@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 18 08:24:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI SEP 18 08:24:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI SEP 18 08:24:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI SEP 18 08:24:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 18, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...IN THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND
IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA, AND IN THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
...CAROLINAS/NORTHERN GEORGIA...
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN GEORGIA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS AIRMASS WILL BE IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 F. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY, AN AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. IN RESPONSE
TO SURFACE HEATING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, MAINLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME
STEEPEST.
...EASTERN NEBRASKA/IOWA...
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY FALL TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., AS A RIDGE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. AT THE SURFACE,
A WELL-DEFINED MOIST AXIS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND NEAR THIS AXIS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING, A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF IOWA. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS, AND FURTHER WEST TO NEAR A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL, THE THREAT COULD DEVELOP
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF IOWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING,
AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.
...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ARE
EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN UTAH INTO VALLEYS OF WESTERN WYOMING, WHERE
THE RAP IS FORECASTING MLCAPE TO PEAK IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES/THORNTON.. 09/18/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 18, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL PRODUCING STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND THE
MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST STATES TOMORROW (SATURDAY).
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
DE-AMPLIFY TO A DEGREE, ALLOWING FOR MULTIPLE PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
(SATURDAY). THE PASSAGE OF THESE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ENCOURAGE
THE SOUTHWARD SHUNTING OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGIONS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY, FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO MOISTURE-INDUCED BUOYANCY,
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET BISECTING THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY
IN THE PLAINS STATES, WILL INTRODUCE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS WELL.
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, SURFACE
HEATING OF THE PRECEDING AIRMASS WILL BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES
INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S F, AMID 70 F DEWPOINTS, YIELDING 2500-3500
J/KG MLCAPE, DESPITE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ONLY REACHING 6.5-7 C/KM.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE COLD FRONT, FROM
SOUTHEASTERN IA TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 30 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MULTICELLS
AND SUPERCELLS ALONG THE FRONT. THE STRONGER STORM CORES MAY SUPPORT
SOME SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION, WHILE MERGING STORMS WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGH-BASED STORMS OVER A DEEPER
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 600 MB.
...MIDWEST TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
APPRECIABLY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST. DESPITE
MEDIOCRE LAPSE RATES, FLOW, AND FORCING ALOFT, LOW TO MID 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AMID MINIMAL MLCINH WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 1500+ J/KG OF TALL AND THIN
MLCAPE. A FEW WATER LOADED DOWNBURSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS, WHERE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND ACCOMPANYING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL SERVE AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. 7.5+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL OVERSPREAD 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS, BOOSTING MLCAPE TO OVER
1500 J/KG. FURTHERMORE, THE UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES WILL YIELD OVER 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, FAVORING
MULTICELL AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, ACCOMPANIED
BY A RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND OR HAIL.
...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND WESTERLY FLOW. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELD SHOULD BE
UNIDIRECTIONAL, BUT INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD OVER 30 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE SPEED SHEAR. WHEN ALSO CONSIDERING 7.5+ C/KM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS AND BECOMES SUSTAINED MAY
BECOME SUPERCELLULAR, WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND OR HAIL
POSSIBLE.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/18/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 18, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MIDWEST TO THE OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A WIND AND HAIL
THREAT, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE MIDWEST TO OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE CONUS ON SUNDAY, WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A MORE AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH IMPINGES ON THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. AS THE PLAINS
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD, A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN
VALLEY REGION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRECEDING THE FRONT,
ALONG WITH MODESTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, MAY YIELD ENOUGH
BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD TAKE
PLACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING,
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TO CENTRAL OK. HERE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S F, AMID UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS, WILL SUPPORT
1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. UP TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AMID 7
C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MAY ENCOURAGE MULTICELLULAR
ORGANIZATION, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. GIVEN
MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT, STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN, SO THE
SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE ENOUGH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. 7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
ELONGATED, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
WILL FAVOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS. SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
...MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER 70 F WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY CORRIDOR AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. BOTH
PRE-FRONTAL AND ANA-FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OVER 2000 J/KG MLCAPE WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE MODEST (I.E. 25-35 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR). A MIX OF MULTICELLS, SHORT LINE SEGMENTS, AND
PERHAPS A SUPERCELL ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT IS
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED IN NATURE, WITH
MAINLY A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE WIND OR HAIL LIKELY.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/18/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 18, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
INITIALLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW, WITH EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WILL GIVE WAY TO
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON DAY 4/MONDAY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, WHERE A SURFACE COLD FRONT, PRECEDED BY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. THEREAFTER,
DRIER LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SETTLE OVER
MUCH OF THE U.S. BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIANS, LIMITING
THE SEVERE THREAT.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN US. ACROSS THE EASTERN US, HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROMOTE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH OVER SOUTHERN KS, WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. FUELS ACROSS THIS
REGION REMAIN CRITICALLY DRY (90-95TH PERCENTILE ERCS), WITH WELL
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS AND BUILDING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY
ABOVE 20-25 PERCENT, TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 F
ACROSS THIS REGION AMID THE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..THORNTON.. 09/18/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON D2/SATURDAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW, PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
...SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH WILL OVERLAP WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 20-25 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN APPROACH
100 F. WITHIN THIS REGION, ERCS ARE IN THE 90-95TH PERCENTILE FOR
DRYNESS. THE BREEZY, DRY, AND HOT CONDITIONS AMID DRY FUELS SUPPORTS
MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED DELINEATION ACROSS THE REGION FOR
D2/SATURDAY.
..THORNTON.. 09/18/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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