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LU9DCE > NEWS 12.09.26 18:27l 345 Lines 13639 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21712_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 09-SEP
Path: IZ3LSV<IK7IJR<IW2OHX<GB7OSW<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260909/1615Z 21712@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED SEP 9 07:30:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF WED SEP 9 07:30:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED SEP 9 07:30:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF WED SEP 9 07:30:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 9, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO
INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM EASTERN OHIO TO
WESTERN NEW YORK.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO, OVERSPREADING THE GREAT LAKES
INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A
DEEP SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE FRONT FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
ACROSS THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST,
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER 60S TO 70S DEW POINTS AND FILTERED DAYTIME
HEATING WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY AMID AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZATION. MODE WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS
AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND.
GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND QUICK MODE TRANSITION TO
CLUSTERS/LINEAR SEGMENTS SHOULD LIMIT HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL.
NONETHELESS, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
CLOCKWISE CURVATURE INCREASES IN HODOGRAPHS A TORNADO MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
...OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST/MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN OHIO VALLEY.
REMNANT SHOWER ACTIVITY/CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH NORTHERN EXTENT. NONETHELESS, ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH GENERALLY A
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AS DAYTIME
HEATING STEEPENS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMID DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES.
SLIGHTLY BETTER FLOW ALOFT MAY FAVOR A MORE FOCUSED CLUSTER ACROSS
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE.
..THORNTON/CHALMERS.. 09/09/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 9, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO THE
MID-SOUTH...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS
INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE MORNING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO
NORTHERN/CENTRAL TX, WHILE THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY STALLS
OVER THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. POCKETS OF WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT
WILL LARGELY BE MODULATED BY AREAS OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, AS WELL AS WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK, WHILE STRONG FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE OFFSET FROM STRONGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
THIS WILL LIMIT MORE FOCUSED/ROBUST SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, A FEW
STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WHERE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES COULD SUPPORT AROUND 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THIS REGIME.
WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FURTHER EAST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH, SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING
COULD OCCUR TO PROMOTE SPORADIC STRONG WIND GUSTS VIA STORM/OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS, OR FROM WET MICROBURSTS WITHIN THE HIGH-PW AND STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
..LEITMAN.. 09/09/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 9, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
...UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
AND COOLING ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY AFTER 00Z. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT 60S DEWPOINTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY INTO MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH COOLING ALOFT/STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN NE INTO MN. STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS MN. WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, INSTABILITY
MAY BE GREATER, BUT SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER.
ADDITIONALLY, WARMER MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY PERSIST FURTHER
SOUTH, RESULTING IN CAPPING AND A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD
WITH STORMS FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
..LEITMAN.. 09/09/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 9, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED SEP 09 2026
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/SAT - CENTRAL PLAINS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
LOW-LEVEL EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS KS AND INTO EASTERN CO. EARLY DAY CONVECTION MAY BE
ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF AIRMASS RECOVERY AND
RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR GIVEN NEBULOUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR.
WHILE LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE, PROBABILITY
APPEARS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
...DAYS 5-6/SUN-MON -- CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY DAY 7/TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES, PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
TROUGH, LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD TO NE/SD AHEAD OF A
SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE
RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY
VICINITY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, LARGE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG FORECAST
GUIDANCE WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT, NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF MOISTURE RETURN, AND FRONTAL POSITION. AS A RESULT, CORRIDORS OF
GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE UNCERTAIN ON SUNDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY.
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW MAY BECOME DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF BETTER
INSTABILITY, AND SIMILARLY LARGE MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES INTO THIS
TIME FRAME. DEPENDING ON TRENDS, SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY.
...DAYS 7-8/TUE-WED...
LOWER AMPLITUDE, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE EARLY-WEEK UPPERS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO
REBUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. THIS SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THOUGH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC AND DAILY SPORADIC STRONG
STORMS COULD STILL OCCUR.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT TUE SEP 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WHILE BROAD RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE EXITING TROUGH AND RELATED DIMINISHING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DISCOURAGE WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD BRING A TARGETED,
TERRAIN-INFLUENCED FIRE WEATHER RISK TO PORTIONS OF WY TODAY.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WYOMING...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LEEWARD OF
MORE PROMINENT MOUNTAIN RANGES AND WIND PRONE AREAS IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WY, WHERE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH (LOCALIZED 20 MPH), AFTERNOON RH
REDUCTIONS OF 5-15% AND RECEPTIVE FUELS INCLUDING ERC VALUES AROUND
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WILL COMBINE TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WY.
...WESTERN CONUS...
A WARMING AND DRYING EVENT WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST AS AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND RESULTANT LIGHTER WIND REGIME AMID MARGINAL
FUELS WILL PRECLUDE BROADER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/09/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CDT TUE SEP 08 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST D2/THURSDAY WHILE A
DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE FUELS REMAIN
LARGELY RECEPTIVE.
...EASTERN IDAHO, SOUTHERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF WYOMING...
WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SOUTH OF THE MID-UPPER TROUGH ENTERING
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL EXPAND AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO SOUTHERN ID, SOUTHERN MT AND
PARTS OF WY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL PROMOTE RH
REDUCTIONS TO BELOW 10% IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BY PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW RH DURING THE DAY WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN ID, SOUTHERN MT AND PORTIONS OF WY
WHERE FUELS REMAIN MORE RECEPTIVE. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL WY WHERE 20 MPH WEST
WINDS AT TIMES ALIGN WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. THUS, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WERE INTRODUCED WITH SOME EXPANSIONS NOTED BASED
ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/09/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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