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LU9DCE > NEWS 30.08.26 19:00l 359 Lines 14669 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21082_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<GB7RJJ<GB7OSW<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260830/1615Z 21082@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN AUG 30 08:40:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN AUG 30 08:40:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN AUG 30 08:40:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN AUG 30 08:40:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 30, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
THREAT, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER SK IS FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD AS IT IS
ENTRAINED IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A BELT OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, COINCIDENT WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MONSOON
MOISTURE. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR
THE MT/ND BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. A WEAKER LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM
SD INTO SOUTHERN MN, WI AND LOWER MI.
MORNING STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO
WESTERN MN COULD PERSIST AND POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL. THE
PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN MT/WY INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TRANSPORT MID 60S DEWPOINTS
WESTWARD AIDING IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD LAG BEHIND THE FRONT. NEVERTHELESS, A BAND OF STORMS, LIKELY
A MIX OF LINE SEGMENTS AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, SHOULD DEVELOP
AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT SPREADING EASTWARD. SOME SEVERE
GUSTS, HAIL ABOVE 1.00" AND PERHAPS A TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT
ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE RISK MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
ACTIVITY PUSHES ACROSS ND/SD AND INTO MN.
..FRONT RANGE TO THE HIGH PLAINS...
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY, HIGH BASED CONVECTION
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO/WY,
AIDED BY 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND HIGH CLOUD BASES MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
ACROSS CO/NE/KS. SOME ORGANIZATION INTO A CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER,
MODEST BUOYANCY MAY INHIBIT BROADER INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION.
...GREAT BASIN/WESTERN SLOPE...
AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F)
WILL BE IN PLACE BENEATH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM EASTERN UT
INTO WESTERN CO. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TROUGH THE DAY
AIDED BY FILTERED DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES. WHILE DESTABILIZATION WILL BE
CONTINGENT ON CLOUD BREAKS, POCKETS OF MODERATE BUOYANCY AMID THE
STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS OR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND
HAIL.
...AZ/CA...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN A HOT
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD BE WELL TO THE NORTH SUPPORTING LITTLE IF ANY STORM
ORGANIZATION. STILL, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT
SPORADIC DOWNBURSTS WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS. SEVERE COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5%.
..LYONS/WENDT.. 08/30/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 30, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SPARSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY WIND AND HAIL, ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW (MONDAY) FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS TOMORROW (SUNDAY), WITH AT LEAST ONE LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SEVERAL OTHER SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES POISED TO PIVOT
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE, OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THESE IMPULSES ATOP
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALL ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MORE SPARSE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST,
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FOSTER ENOUGH BUOYANCY AND
SHEAR TO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT.
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE UPPER MS VALLEY
WHILE A SMALLER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IMPINGES ON THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AFTER DARK. AS SUCH, UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED ALONG AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NE TO FAR
WESTERN WI DURING THE DAY. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD EXCEED 70 F AS 7.5-8 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ADVECTED
OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST, YIELDING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHERMORE,
MODEST WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO 35-40 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, WHICH IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR MULTICELLS AND
SUPERCELLS SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP AND MATURE. SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH SUCH A STORM. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETER SPACE, THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS QUITE CONDITIONAL GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT, AS
SUGGESTED BY CAMS, WHICH SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STORM COVERAGE.
GIVEN DOUBTS ON MORE THAN SPARSE STORM COVERAGE, ONLY MARGINAL RISK
PROBABILITIES REMAIN IN PLACE.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/30/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 30, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO ARE ALL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, AND
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED IMPULSES OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
REGIONS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE, OVERSPREAD BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST.
...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEMONSTRATE A
CONSENSUS IN DEPICTING AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND IMPINGING ON THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHILE
PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING THIS PERTURBATION MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP, (E.G.
BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM), RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (E.G. LOW TO MID 70S F
DEWPOINTS) WILL BE PRESENT. FURTHERMORE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT
APPRECIABLY CURVED AND ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS, SUGGESTING SOME STORMS
MAY OBTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. A SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLIER DAY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION,
WHICH MAY YIELD A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR,
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE CONFINED TO THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. SINCE
THE SPECIFICS ON THE PLACEMENT OF SUCH A BOUNDARY ARE TOO DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, A CATEGORY 2/SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THESE PROBABILITIES MAY BE
MODIFIED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
...PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES GLANCE THE REGION TO THE NORTH.
NONETHELESS, 7+ C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD 70+ F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM IA TO LOWER MI TUESDAY AFTERNOON, YIELDING
OVER 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. APPRECIABLE SIZED HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH THIS BUOYANCY AS THE EASTERN PART OF A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE MIDWEST. GIVEN THE LIMITED ASCENT,
STORM COVERAGE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND MAY END UP BEING QUITE SPARSE
AT BEST. NONETHELESS, MARGINAL RISK PROBABILITIES WERE INTRODUCED
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SPACE WITHIN A CLOSE
DISTANCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH.
..SQUITIERI.. 08/30/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 30, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE RETROGRADING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND. MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE THE UPPER RIDGE THIS
WEEK BEFORE UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE INTERIOR WEST TOWARD THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES TRAVERSING
THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...DAYS 4-6 (WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY) - NORTHEAST TO MID-ATLANTIC...
SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC DAY 4/WEDNESDAY, AS GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-TIMED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SIGNAL ACCOMPANYING THIS IMPULSE ALONG WITH
APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING FROM DAY 3 (TUESDAY) STORMS MAY
STABILIZE PART OF THIS AREA, WITH THE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF STORMS
BECOMING DEPENDENT ON RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC BOUNDARIES. AS SUCH, THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
LIKEWISE, FOR DAY 5/THURSDAY, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
TRAVERSE THE NORTHEAST EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND OVERSPREAD THE
MID-ATLANTIC. GIVEN ADEQUATE BUOYANCY AND SHEAR LIKELY REMAINING IN
PLACE, 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED. AS WITH
THE PREVIOUS DAY, THESE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS BASED ON WHERE AIRMASS MODIFICATION ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONES OCCURS.
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE, ACCOMPANIED BY ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY,
IMPINGING ON THE MID-ATLANTIC ON DAY 6/FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ML/AI GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT THE FRIDAY SEVERE THREAT WOULD ENCOMPASS THE ENDING STAGES OF A
POTENTIAL MULTI-DAY SEVERE EPISODE. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE PRECEDING
DAYS OF STORMS AND CONSTANT SHIFT IN FAVORABLE CORRIDORS MODULATED
BY BAROCLINIC ZONES, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR REALISTICALLY
PINPOINTING A FOCUSED SEVERE AREA. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THE DELMARVA
MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEEING ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROMOTE A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THIS
TROUGH, STRONG HEATING AND MIXING WILL ALLOW RH TO DROP TO AROUND
20-25% FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. MODESTLY ENHANCED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL HELP DRIVE 15-20 MPH WINDS (WITH STRONGER GUSTS) ACROSS THESE
AREAS. AREAS OF DROUGHT-STRESSED FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..WENDT.. 08/30/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST ON MONDAY. A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
THE DAY. IN ITS WAKE, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RELAX BEFORE QUICKLY
INCREASING AGAIN INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AND
MODEST SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. A SMALL ZONE OF FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF 15-20 MPH
WINDS WITH MARGINALLY LOWERED RH (15-20%) IS FORECAST FROM NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OREGON. HERE, MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY DRY
FUELS.
..WENDT.. 08/30/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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