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LU9DCE > NEWS 16.08.26 18:45l 397 Lines 15375 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19979_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 16-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 260816/1615Z 19979@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN AUG 16 07:57:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN AUG 16 07:57:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC MD 1994
MD 1994 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NE INTO NORTHWEST MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NE INTO NORTHWEST
MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 160713Z - 160915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...AN MCS IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS TOWARDS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NE EARLY THIS MORNING. RELATIVELY STRONG INBOUND
VELOCITIES (45-55 KT) ARE NOTED AT 1-2 KM AGL FROM KUEX ALONG THE
GUST FRONT, THOUGH RECENT MEASURED GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
SUB-SEVERE. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A PLUME OF LARGE PW
(NEAR/ABOVE 2 INCHES) TO THE NORTH OF A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN
KS MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN THIS SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH RATHER WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, MODEST EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, AND UNFAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO KEEP ANY
SEVERE-GUST THREAT LOCALIZED.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE MCS
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHWEST MO, WITHIN THE WARM-ADVECTION
REGIME NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE LARGE PW WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS REGIME AS WELL, THOUGH THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND GENERALLY MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 08/16/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39889941 40409903 40669840 40629512 40189300 39629254
39279292 39199378 39109646 38999687 38869741 38679794
38669832 39079838 39419856 39889941
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 16, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, EMBEDDED IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALONG
THIS WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR WILL BE IN THE 70S F,
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
MIDDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY, AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY. A COMPLEX OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST VIRGINIA, AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM WEST VIRGINIA INTO THE VIRGINIA IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND 0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEP APPROACHING 7 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WITH SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
FURTHER WEST INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WEAKER FURTHER WEST, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AT MID-LEVELS, A RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TODAY AS FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE AFTERNOON HAVE MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG),
0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 35 KNOTS AND 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7 TO
7.5 C/KM RANGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WITH ROTATING STORMS AND ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENTS. THE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
..BROYLES/LYONS.. 08/16/2026
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 16, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS.
...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOP EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MIDWEST, RESULTING IN BROADER HEIGHT
FALLS FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES. AS THIS
OCCURS, 40-50 KT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST MN
INTO WESTERN NE BY 00Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A CORRIDOR OF 60S F
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NE INTO IA/SOUTHEAST
SD AND MN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP
BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODESTLY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
RESULT IN 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE AMID 35+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
UPSCALE GROWTH COULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING ACROSS NE AS A MODEST
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. IF THIS OCCURS, THE DAMAGING WIND RISK COULD
INCREASE.
...SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
A VORTICITY MAX LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL DEVELOP
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH 30-40 KT WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE AMID STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE
AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMA APPROACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGH PW VALUES, AND 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES COULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED CLUSTERS PRODUCING
DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH EVENING.
..LEITMAN.. 08/16/2026
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 16, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID-MS VALLEY VICINITY...
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER KS. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, WITH
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTING 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ARE ALSO PRESENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. INITIAL SUPERCELLS COULD POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE GUSTS. WITH TIME, SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EVENING, AND MCS
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR.
..LEITMAN.. 08/16/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 16, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAYS 4-5/WED-THU -- MID-SOUTH TO MID-ATLANTIC...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND
AN UPPER RIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S., SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON DAYS 4-5/WED-THU.
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND STALLED
UPPER TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN A SLOWLY SAGGING SURFACE FRONT ARCING
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE, AND AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED AT THIS TIME
FOR 15 PERCENT PROBABILITIES AT THE TIME SCALE.
...DAYS 7-8/SAT-SUN -- NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS THE REGION AS
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES SURFACE
HIGH TRANSPORTS RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. IT
IS UNCERTAIN IF CAPPING WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT
IF ANY SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATE THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
SOME SEVERE RISK COULD DEVELOP.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN US WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
THIS WILL FORCE A STALLED FRONT OVER THE PLAINS SOUTHWARD WHILE
MONSOON MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD WITH A SECOND WEAKER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. WHILE OVERALL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
LOW, SOME LIGHTNING AND DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE AND OK TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LIKELY HIGHER-BASED OWING TO VERY WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THESE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER ARES
OF VERY DRY FUELS. HOWEVER, SLOW STORM SPEEDS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT SUGGEST LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DRY STORMS.
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORM OUTFLOW.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
THE PRIMARY PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN US. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
PRIMARY AXIS OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST INTO ID,
MT AND WY WHERE RECENT WETTING RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN APPEAR LIKELY, MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR WETTING RAINFALL, AND OCCURRING WHERE FUELS ARE
MUCH LESS RECEPTIVE TO LIGHTNING THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
FARTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OR, NORTHERN NV AND NORTHEAST
CA, WEAK TROUGHING IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY LOCALLY BOLSTER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF 10-15 MPH COULD
SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE
RELATIVELY DRIER. LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
BROADER FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE UNLIKELY DUE TO THE MODEST WINDS.
..LYONS.. 08/16/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN US IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN US
AND ANOTHER MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE INCREASE IN
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BOLSTER SURFACE WINDS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN CA AND THE GREAT BASIN WITH DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE ROCKIES, THOUGH LIKELY WITH WETTING RAINFALL.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHEAST CA...
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE WEST, DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
NORTHEASTERN CA ON DAY 2/MONDAY. LARGELY DEVOID OF RECENT RAINFALL
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY. WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS OF 12-20% ARE ALSO
LIKELY. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM NORTHEASTERN CA INTO PARTS OF NV AND SOUTHERN OR.
...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF ID, MT AND NORTHERN WY.
DESPITE MORE LIMITED MONSOON MOISTURE (PWATS 0.6-0.9 INCHES) SEVERAL
DAYS OF WETTING RAINFALL HAVE TEMPERED FUELS SUCH THAT DRY STORMS
AND LIGHTNING IGNITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SPORADIC.
..LYONS.. 08/16/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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