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LU9DCE > NEWS 14.08.26 20:00l 434 Lines 17250 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19839_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 14-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 260814/1615Z 19839@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI AUG 14 08:31:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI AUG 14 08:31:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC MD 1976
MD 1976 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1976
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 140720Z - 140945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A BOWING SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-LIVED MCS IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NE. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS
GENERATED A WELL-DEFINED MCV, CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY SPORADIC SEVERE GUSTS NOTED OVER THE
LAST 1-2 HOURS. SOME REJUVENATION OF CONVECTION ALONG THE GUST FRONT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS IT MOVES WITHIN AN ELEVATED BUOYANCY GRADIENT
AND ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, BUT THE REMAINING SEVERE-GUST
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
FARTHER EAST, AN ARC OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING FROM NORTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. THIS CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM-ADVECTION REGIME TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN KS/MO. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THEY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME OVERNIGHT.
RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE INCREASING ABOVE
2000 J/KG WILL FAVOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS
GENERALLY WEAK, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORMS ROOTED AROUND 850 MB
IS LESS THAN 30 KT. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR, THE OVERNIGHT SEVERE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. HOWEVER, EFFECTIVE SRH
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN AT LEAST TRANSIENT STORM
ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS, WHILE THE FAVORABLE BUOYANCY AND LARGE PW (NEAR/ABOVE 2
INCHES) WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL, EVEN WITH THE
PERSISTENCE OF A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER.
..DEAN/MOSIER.. 08/14/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 40849411 41289564 40989676 40739773 40439832 40839870
41179917 41479922 41859936 42229915 42659840 42809680
43019447 42629239 41299264 41109320 40849411
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 14, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC.
...MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY, AS A SUBTLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SOUTHERN IOWA
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE 70S F, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF OMAHA. FROM THESE INITIAL STORMS, A
LINE IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
IOWA AND FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE LINE AT 00Z FROM DES MOINES
SOUTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI HAVE MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3500
J/KG RANGE. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW-LEVELS, AND
0-6 KM SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL WITH A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING THE EVENING.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE ROCKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SOME RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7 C/KM. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
...OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG AND NEAR THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THESE POCKETS OF
CONVERGENCE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
WET DOWNBURSTS.
..BROYLES/LYONS.. 08/14/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 14, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY,
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND CAROLINAS.
...OHIO VALLEY...
AN MCV IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN
IA/NORTHERN IL SATURDAY MORNING. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI TOWARD WV WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW/MCV SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MI TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE,
AND AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP.
SPREAD AMONG FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE REGARDING THESE
SURFACE FEATURES AND CORRIDORS OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION.
NEVERTHELESS, STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
LOW/MCV WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
NEAR THE MCV AND SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TOWARD
WV/EASTERN KY.
...VA/CAROLINAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST, ESPECIALLY WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO GA/FL, BUT STRONG HEATING COULD SUPPORT
SPORADIC DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT. IF SUFFICIENT
CLUSTERING OCCURS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN, A FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTER
COULD MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, PRODUCING GREATER RISK
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MO VALLEY...
ANOTHER MCV IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER KS/NE, MOVING TOWARD THE
MID-MO VALLEY. DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN AS THIS
AIRMASS WILL HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BY THE DOWNSTREAM MCV MOVING INTO
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.
AS CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN CO AND VICINITY, STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS NE
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT, MAINLY POSING A RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS.
..LEITMAN.. 08/14/2026
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 14, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...MID-MS VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MODESTLY DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN WEAK MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS.
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD A SEASONALLY MOIST
AIRMASS AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT LEAST A COUPLE
MCVS MAY BE LOCATED WITHIN THIS BROADER REGION OF ENHANCED WESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE FEATURES, ALONG
WITH THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING SURFACE FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THE OVERALL KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
MAINLY CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..HIGH PLAINS...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. FLOW
THROUGH AROUND 500 MB WILL REMAIN WEAK, BUT VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES, AND WESTERLIES INCREASING WITH HEIGHT ABOVE 500 MB WILL
SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES GREATER THAN 30 KT AND
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 08/14/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 14, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/MON...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. SOME SEVERE RISK
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT IMPINGES ON A SEASONALLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HOWEVER, VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MODEST (20-30 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR). THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS COULD
POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IF
SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING OCCURS GIVEN MODERATE TO STRONG DOWNSTREAM
INSTABILITY. SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS IF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK APPEARS MORE LIKELY.
...DAYS 5-8/TUE-FRI...
LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AROUND DAY 5
OR 6/TUE OR WED AS A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH DAY
7/THU. THIS COULD RESULT IN INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER TROUGHS PIVOT EASTWARD. GIVEN A PRIOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH AT LEAST PARTS OF
TUESDAY, IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMODYNAMIC
RECOVERY WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE UPPER FEATURE. DEPENDING ON
TRENDS, SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL
US TODAY. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS TROUGHING, ALONG WITH MONSOON MOISTURE, SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE BENEATH THE RIDGE, VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, LOW
HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL FOSTER ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...WESTERN WA/OR INTO NORTHERN CA...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
CA AND INTO WESTERN OR AND SOUTHERN WA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL OVERSPREAD
A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM NORTHWESTERN CA TO THE OR CASCADES
AND CENTRAL OR. PWATS GENERALLY BELOW 0.90" AND FASTER NORTHEASTWARD
STORM MOTIONS WILL PROMOTE LIMITED RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. ERC VALUES IN THE 80-90TH PERCENTILE AND
SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR IGNITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER OR WHERE
FASTER STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE, ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 100 F ARE LIKELY FROM THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHERN KS. WITH THIS
HEAT, AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW 20%.
BOLSTERED BY THE STRONG HEATING AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE SOUTHWESTERLY 15-20 MPH SURFACE WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THE VERY DRY FUELS, ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES NEAR A STALLED FRONT. WHILE LIKELY HIGHER
BASED, WEAKENING UPPER FLOW FROM THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT
STORM MOTIONS AND DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STILL, LIGHTNING
INTERACTING WITH DRIER FUELS COULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
IGNITIONS.
..LYONS.. 08/14/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BUILDING
RAPIDLY AS THE WEAK WESTERN US TROUGH IS PUSHED NORTHWARD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON THE PERIPHERY. BENEATH THE RIDGE,
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL US
PROMOTING LOW HUMIDITY, BREEZY WINDS AND SOME FIRE-WEATHER RISK.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HOT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BENEATH THE BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW HUNDREDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN SUPPORTING RH MINIMUMS AROUND
20-25%%. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AT THE SURFACE, ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN FRIDAY. WITH LITTLE RECENT RAINFALL, AREA FUELS
ARE VERY DRY. SOME LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY, BUT
THE WEAKER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED AREA.
...NORTHWEST...
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE, WEAK TROUGHING WILL
PERSIST ATOP A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF WA/OR AND INTO WESTERN ID.
WHILE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE WA/OR CASCADES SHOULD LIKELY TEMPER
FUELS, DRIER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN OR AND WESTERN ID MAY ALLOW
FUELS TO REMAIN MORE RECEPTIVE TO LIGHTNING IGNITIONS. MEAN STORM
SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVELS COULD SUPPORT
SOME RISK FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ISODRYT AREA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED PENDING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY, BUT SOME RISK FOR LIGHTING OVER DRY
FUELS IS APPARENT.
..LYONS.. 08/14/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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