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LU9DCE > NEWS 11.08.26 19:32l 446 Lines 19259 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19649_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 11-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<EA2RCF<LU9DCE
Sent: 260811/1615Z 19649@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE AUG 11 08:17:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF TUE AUG 11 08:17:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE AUG 11 08:17:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF TUE AUG 11 08:17:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 11, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM IOWA TO VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
FROM THE EASTERN IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS VICINITY INTO PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AREAS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
...IA TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
A COMPLEX FORECAST SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM IA INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ADJACENT APPALACHIA. MORE THAN ONE MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE FIRST ACROSS IA/SOUTHERN MN, AND
ONE FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST (EXACT LOCATION IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT MOST LIKELY IN/OH). POSSIBLE EARLY DAY CONVECTION
ACROSS IN/OH WILL SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE MORNING POSING RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO EMERGE ACROSS APPALACHIA, AND EVENTUALLY VA AND THE
BROADER MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS VA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REMAINS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN PRIOR CONVECTION THE PREVIOUS DAY AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
COULD MATERIALIZE IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
THE ANTICIPATED MCS OVER IA/SOUTHERN MN EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST,
FUELED BY A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG (BY AUGUST STANDARDS),
WITH FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 700 MB GREATER THAN 60 KT
SPREADING ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH EVENING. WHILE THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF A POTENTIAL SEVERE MCS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IS
UNCERTAIN, IT IS POSSIBLE THE MORNING ACTIVITY OVER IA WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST ALONG OUTFLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN THE STRONG
KINEMATIC FIELD AND AMPLE INSTABILITY, IF A WELL ORGANIZED MCS IS
MAINTAINED FROM IA SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY, A SWATH OF DAMAGING
GUSTS (SOME 75+ MPH) WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN 60S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF NE
THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, AND STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING AMID SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES.
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ARE FORECAST.
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ALSO COULD OCCUR. GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT
UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR, AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT OVERNIGHT.
..LEITMAN/MOORE.. 08/11/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 11, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
...PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.
ANY MORNING CONVECTION WILL IN TURN INFLUENCE THE POSITION OF AN
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL GENERALLY EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE
MID MO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. STRONG HEATING, RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND GENERALLY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
STRONG TO EXTREME BUOYANCY TO THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT, WITH
SUBSTANTIAL MUCAPE POSSIBLE TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANY EARLY-DAY STORM CLUSTER TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH A DAMAGING-WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE,
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR INITIAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST DIURNAL
STORMS, THOUGH THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR CLUSTERING AND PERHAPS
ORGANIZED UPSCALE GROWTH, WITH INCREASING WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF
ORGANIZED-SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE, AND A 15% WIND AREA WAS ADDED WHERE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
HAS THE GREATEST SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.
...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID
MISSOURI VALLEY...
TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO AND AN
EASTWARD-EXTENDING WARM FRONT, MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NE INTO NORTHWEST KS/FAR NORTHEAST CO.
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY MODEST, BUT VEERING WIND PROFILES
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
INITIAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT COULD POSE
A THREAT OF HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH AND
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NE AND VICINITY. GUIDANCE
VARIES REGARDING THE ORGANIZATION OF ANY NOCTURNAL MCS, BUT AT LEAST
ISOLATED DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL COULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
...NORTHERN SD/SOUTHERN ND INTO PARTS OF MN/WI/MI...
WHILE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION,
MODERATE BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONT
DRAPED FROM NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER INTO SOUTHERN MN, WI, AND LOWER
MI. COVERAGE OF STORMS IS UNCERTAIN WITHIN THIS REGIME, BUT MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL IF ANY SUSTAINED STORMS DEVELOP.
...CAROLINAS/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
THE EVOLUTION OF ANTECEDENT UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL HAVE A
CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON THE POSITION OF THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONT
AND ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT AND ALSO ACROSS
FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS, WITH MODEST WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CELLS/CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT
OF WIND DAMAGE. ANY FEATURES FAVORABLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
(SUCH AS A PERSISTENT STORM CLUSTER OR MCV) COULD RESULT IN A
GREATER COVERAGE OF WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS IS TOO LOW FOR MORE THAN 5% WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 08/11/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 11, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY A REMNANT MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF IA/NORTHERN MO INTO IL,
AIDED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR THIS
CONVECTION IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH
ANY REMNANT STORM CLUSTER OR MCV MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
INTENSIFICATION AND WIND-DAMAGE POTENTIAL INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, IF IT IS WELL-TIMED WITH DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, IN THE VICINITY
OF A FRONTAL ZONE. THE POSITION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF ANTECEDENT DAY 1-2 CONVECTION, AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT APPEARS NEBULOUS AT BEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITHIN A REGIME
OF WEAK MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH SOMEWHAT
GREATER COVERAGE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR
AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE INTO LATE EVENING NEAR THE FRONT,
THOUGH THE LATER ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS, BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WHERE DEEP
CONVECTION CAN BE SUSTAINED. A BROAD 5% AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE ANTICIPATED VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE DETAILS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION REMAINS RATHER LOW.
...PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...
MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. GUIDANCE VARIES
CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EXTENT (IF ANY) OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS REGION, IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES REGARDING
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS.
..DEAN.. 08/11/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 11, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0313 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...D4/FRIDAY...
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY,
NEAR AND SOUTH OF A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT FRONTAL POSITION, BUT STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ITS VICINITY. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL ZONE, WHICH MAY TEND TO KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT ISOLATED. ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN VA, WHERE THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST MAY RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT, IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.
...D5/SATURDAY - D6/SUNDAY...
SOME DAMPENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE (POTENTIALLY AIDED BY ONE OR MORE
MCVS EMERGING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS) MAY RESULT IN SEVERE POTENTIAL
EMERGING THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER, DETAILS REGARDING TIMING OF ANY
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND POSITION OF THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE REMAIN
QUITE UNCERTAIN.
...D7/MONDAY - D8/TUESDAY...
EXTENDED-RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF THE EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREDICTABILITY REMAINS QUITE
LOW REGARDING THE EXTENT TO WHICH STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW IMPINGES
UPON FAVORABLE INSTABILITY, BUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST,
STRETCHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EDGES
CLOSER TO THE OR/NORTHERN CA COAST. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF DRY, WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEASTERN CA, NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, ARCING
EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WY. THESE ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE NORTH OF DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CO RIVER BASIN REGIONS WHERE A
MIX OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
ARE EXPECTED.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WYOMING...
FUELS REMAIN QUITE RECEPTIVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CA INTO
NORTHWESTERN NV AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF SINGLE DIGIT DAYTIME RH
VALUES AND POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES AS MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. MODEST WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION. WEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND ENHANCED
DOWNSLOPE DRYING OFF THE SIERRA NEVADA RESULTING IN 10% OR BELOW RH,
WILL PRESENT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO NORTHEASTERN CA AND
ADJACENT NV. TRANSIENT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE WINDS REACH 20 MPH, BUT ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. SIMILARLY DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN ID, EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WY.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A LEE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BOLSTER A MODEST SOUTH
WIND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF UP TO
15 MPH AND SURFACE RH AS LOW AS 10% WITHIN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE, NORTHWESTERN OK AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
KS THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS RECEPTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM
CURING FINE FUELS AMID EXPANDING DROUGHT.
...DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE DEEPER MONSOONAL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORMS TO HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLOW MOVEMENT
COMBINED WITH PWAT VALUES OF 0.75-1.00 INCH WILL LIMIT IGNITION
POTENTIAL TO OUTSIDE HEAVIER RAIN CORES. IN ADDITION, NORTHWARD
TRANSPORT OF RICHER MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED D2/WEDNESDAY AS
TROUGHING DEEPENS NEAR THE WEST COAST. EXPECTED RAINFALL WILL
FURTHER REDUCE HOLDOVER THREATS WITH LONGER TERM FUEL IMPROVEMENT AS
HIGHER HUMIDITY, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (WITH POSSIBLE WETTING RAINS) EMERGE LATER
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE, DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS WERE NOT INTRODUCED.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/11/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ENCROACHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CA COAST ON D2/WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. THE TROUGH AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WILL
AID IN A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MT, ID PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN WA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS NORTH OF MORE ROBUST
MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN CA AND ADJACENT OR/NV AS
WELL AS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BOLSTER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, PROMOTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TX PANHANDLE, NORTHWESTERN OK AND SOUTHWESTERN KS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN KS ON D2/WEDNESDAY. A PARENT SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KS
WILL ENHANCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH, RH
DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 10% AMID A DROUGHT STRESSED FUELSCAPE WILL
PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE, NORTHWESTERN OK AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN KS. ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS WERE ADJUSTED WESTWARD BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
EXPECTED FUEL CONDITIONS.
...NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON, IDAHO PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN
MONTANA...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NEIGHBORING HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A MIX OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE AS PWATS REACH INTO THE 0.80-1.00 INCH RANGE AMID
INCREASINGLY INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, FUELS REMAIN QUITE RECEPTIVE WITH
ERCS STILL REACHING INTO THE 90-95TH PERCENTILES SO CONCERNS FOR NEW
IGNITIONS REMAIN. THEREFORE, ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS
WERE WARRANTED GIVEN ONGOING FIRE ACTIVITY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
...NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN NEVADA AND FAR SOUTHERN
OREGON...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GREAT BASIN AS THE
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST AND BROADER RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD. A VERY DRY RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER AND DEVELOPING WESTERLY
WINDS OF UP TO 15 MPH DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER DRY FUELS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
CA, NORTHWESTERN NV AND SOUTHERN OR. FARTHER EAST, SIMILAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND RH AS LOW AS 15% WILL
SUPPORT AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN IN ID. INTRODUCED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR BOTH OF
THESE AREAS AS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AT LEAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.
..WILLIAMS.. 08/11/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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