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LU9DCE > NEWS 10.08.26 19:02l 457 Lines 19144 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19590_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<I3XTY<GB7COW<GB7BED<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 260810/1615Z 19590@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON AUG 10 08:21:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF MON AUG 10 08:21:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC MD 1891
MD 1891 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...551... FOR PARTS OF
EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1891
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...551...
VALID 100715Z - 100915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550, 551
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY, BUT THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LOWERING ENOUGH THAT A NEW SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...LINGERING CONVECTION NOW GENERALLY SPREADING ACROSS AND
TO THE EAST/SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY APPEARS
ROOTED WITHIN FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION. THIS IS DOWNSTREAM OF A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.
A SMALL CLUSTERING OF STORMS NOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF DANVILLE IL
APPEARS THE LONE ACTIVITY MAINTAINING ROOTS NEAR THE SURFACE, WITHIN
A BOUNDARY-LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
INCLUDING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S F. LOCATED ALONG A 30-35+
KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET AXIS, NEAR-SURFACE HODOGRAPHS ARE
CHARACTERIZED BY LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVATURE SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
ROTATION, THOUGH THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN FLOW FURTHER ALOFT,
PARTICULARLY WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT FROM THE CURRENT
POSITION OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.
AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A SOMEWHAT
LESS MOIST AIR MASS, ANY LINGERING RISK FOR TORNADOES SEEMS LIKELY
TO DIMINISH. POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY
PERSIST, BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THIS WILL REQUIRE A NEW SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH.
..KERR.. 08/10/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 41248795 40488488 39988603 40538793 40848853 41248795
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 10, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF
THE MIDWEST INTO PA AND NORTHERN MD/VA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, WITH SCATTERED STRONG
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF ENHANCED WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY/TONIGHT. ONLY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST AT BEST.
HOWEVER, SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE FORECAST
TO MIGRATE THROUGH THIS UPPER FLOW REGIME, FOCUSING SEVERAL AREAS OF
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TODAY INTO TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC.
...IL TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
EARLY DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST THIS
MORNING, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUB-SEVERE. BY MIDDAY, CONVECTION
COULD INTENSIFY WITHIN A COUPLE OF CORRIDORS. THE FIRST BEING THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY/PA/WESTERN NY. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SPREADING EAST
FROM IL INTO IN/OH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONG
INSTABILITY AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. MODESTLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KT WILL
SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS. WITH TIME, SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING IS
EXPECTED AND BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND AND
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO COULD
OCCUR.
...DAKOTAS INTO IOWA...
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
NORTH AND WEST ACROSS SD, WITH 70S DEWPOINTS COMMON WITH SOUTHEAST
EXTENT ACROSS NE/IA/SOUTHERN MN. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF
STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE COVERAGE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AMID FAVORABLE DEEP
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND BOWS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME, IT IS POSSIBLE SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING
OCCURS AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING MCS IS POSSIBLE AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS, A SWATH OF
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SD INTO NORTHWEST IA,
ORIENTED ALONG THE STRONGER INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
...NE/CO/KS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NE/NORTHEAST CO BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
...AZ...
MID/UPPER EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY AMID PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
AND STRONG HEATING. THIS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. AS STORMS PROPAGATE WESTWARD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN/MOORE.. 08/10/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 10, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MIDWEST.
...OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
AT MID-LEVELS, WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AT THE
SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS THAT AN INTENSE
LINE SEGMENT COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHERE THE BOUNDARY FROM MORNING
CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY AT 21Z HAVE MLCAPE
IN THE 2000 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. WIND PROFILES ALONG THIS
WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR HAVE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE MID-LEVELS. SOME OF THIS ZONE COULD HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 40
TO 50 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND
200 M2/S2. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. SOME MODEL FORECASTS, INCLUDING THE HRRR
SUGGEST THAT AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A SWATH OF WIND DAMAGE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST...
AT MID-LEVELS, RISING HEIGHTS AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AS A
LOW DEEPENS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL AID CONVECTIVE
INITIATION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED STORMS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.
ACROSS THE MOIST AIRMASS, MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 2000 TO
3000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
HOWEVER, THE RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
COULD RESULT IN A MORE LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 08/10/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 10, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITHIN THE FLOW, A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A LEE TROUGH
LOCATED IN THE HIGH PLAINS. DURING THE DAY, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BECOME MAXIMIZED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH,
WHICH WILL THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE TROUGH AND
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOIST AIRMASS, SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S F, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
NORTH PLATTE, NEBRASKA NORTHWARD TO EAST OF RAPID CITY, SOUTH DAKOTA
HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
...MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...
MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE OVER THIS SAME AREA. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES
MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS MUCH OF THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE SUPPORTING AN
ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE
GREATEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BECOME STEEP.
..BROYLES.. 08/10/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. EARLY MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST, AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT,
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSES WILL BE MUTED WITH GENERALLY WEAK GRADIENT
WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE ROCKIES. NONETHELESS, SOME
AREAS WILL STILL EXPERIENCE TERRAIN-DRIVEN WIND SPEEDS REACHING OR
EXCEEDING ELEVATED THRESHOLDS WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS.
ADDITIONALLY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
...GREAT BASIN...
BREEZY CONDITIONS (SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH) WITH RH MINIMUMS
IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AGAIN TODAY, LARGELY HEATING AND DEEP MIXING OF
A DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW REGIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE MORE PROLONGED AND SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 20 MPH WHERE TOPOGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES WILL LOCALLY AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW (NAMELY IN THE LEE OF
THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA IN NORTHWEST NV AND THROUGH THE SNAKE
RIVER VALLEY IN EASTERN ID). FUELS ACROSS THE BROADER REGION REMAIN
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS (AS EVIDENT BY SCATTERED NEW STARTS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS), AND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
...CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY...
AN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST FOR TODAY ALONG THE CA COAST,
WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DOWNSLOPE FLOW INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAN OVERLAP
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST LEE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS FOR
TODAY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KS
AND NORTHWEST OK. BASED ON RECENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND OBSERVED
WINDS YESTERDAY (WHICH FEATURED A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC REGIME),
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 100 F WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S. THESE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH
OF ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
00 UTC RAOBS FROM ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION
SAMPLED VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A PLUME OF RICH
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. PWAT VALUES OF 0.8 TO 1.0 INCH WERE NOTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL PROMOTE A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF AZ, UT, AND NV. HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE NOTED ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME AND SHOULD
SUPPORT A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR PREDOMINANTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING - MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NV INTO PORTIONS
OF ID AND WY. GIVEN A RECEPTIVE FUEL LANDSCAPE ALREADY IN PLACE,
LIGHTNING IGNITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN.
..MOORE.. 08/10/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION IS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME IS
EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
WEAK LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT WINDS FOR MOST REGIONS. NONETHELESS, SOME
AREAS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
TERRAIN AUGMENTATIONS TO THE WIND FIELD THAT SHOULD SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITHIN A DRY AIR MASS.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND
RH MINIMUMS NEAR/BELOW 15% LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE MODEST (10-15 MPH), STRONGER ZONAL FLOW NEAR
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY MIX TO THE SURFACE AND
MANIFEST AS FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH. STRONGER, BUT MORE
LOCALIZED WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA, THOUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN EASTERN IDAHO, AND ACROSS
EASTERN WY WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WILL PROMOTE WINDS BETWEEN 15-20
MPH.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A WEAK LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE. CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOMEWHAT WEAKER WIND SPEEDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY OR IS
EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RH
MINIMUMS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S EXPECTED, AND WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON AMID DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A REGION THAT HAS SEEN SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY, WINDY
WEATHER.
...DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOULD
YIELD PWAT VALUES GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 0.75 TO 1.0 INCH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY FAVOR A MIX OF WET AND
DRY THUNDERSTORMS. DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A NARROW
BAND OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS NORTHEAST UT INTO
SOUTHERN WY AND NORTHERN CO TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE OVERALL
SIGNAL FROM RECENT CAM ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE
FAIRLY SPATIALLY LIMITED. WHILE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION CORES, CONFIDENCE IN
THE COVERAGE OF PREDOMINANTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TOO LIMITED
FOR ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..MOORE.. 08/10/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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