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LU9DCE > NEWS 06.08.26 13:00l 346 Lines 13746 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19290_LU9DCE
Read: GUEST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 06-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260806/1045Z 19290@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU AUG 6 08:03:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU AUG 6 08:03:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU AUG 6 08:03:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU AUG 6 08:03:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 6, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS.
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO NEW YORK.
...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI/FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED FROM FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI, ALONG WHICH DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S F. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY, MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT, WITH THE RAP
FORECASTING MLCAPE TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED NEAR
THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE FROM
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
BY THE EARLY TO MID EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR THE FRONT HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40
KNOT RANGE WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. A MIXED MODE IS EXPECTED WITH
SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS BOTH POSSIBLE. SUPERCELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL, WHILE THE STRONGER
LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARILY A WIND-DAMAGE
THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE MID TO LATE
EVENING.
...MID-ATLANTIC/NEW YORK/FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED FROM THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAINS OF VIRGINIA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS, MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TOWARD THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE TROUGH WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F, WHICH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE, WHICH
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.
...WESTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SET UP FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA, WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S F. NEAR THIS AXIS, MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE PEAKING IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK, ANY CELL THAT CAN INITIATE NEAR THE INSTABILITY
AXIS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
..BROYLES/SUPINIE.. 08/06/2026
READ MORE
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SPC AUG 6, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM IOWA ACROSS WISCONSIN
AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY, WITH AREAS OF STRONG/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED MARGINAL HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.
...IA...SOUTHEAST MN...WI...UPPER MI...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHWEST WI INTO IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. A MOIST AIR MASS WITH 70S F
DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CONTRIBUTING TO 2000-3000
J/KG MUCAPE. SUPPORTING THE POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE
RELATIVELY COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -10 C.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT WITH
SCATTERED MARGINAL HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. SOME POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP FOR AN MCS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INCLUDING IA, AND THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POTENTIAL GREATER WIND PROBABILITIES.
...NORTHERN VA INTO PA AND SOUTHERN NY...
MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AROUND 25 KT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY, WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING AS A
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION. IN THE LOW
LEVELS, WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL MAINTAIN
A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS, WHICH WHEN HEATED DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
YIELD UP TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS
WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.
DESPITE LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES, MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN VA/MD INTO CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PA AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK BUT A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
..JEWELL.. 08/06/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 6, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEBRASKA
INTO PARTS OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NEBRASKA INTO IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI.
...MID TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
ROTATES NORTHEAST FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MO
VALLEY, WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS NE AND IA. STRONG
HEATING WILL OCCUR EAST OF A SURFACE LOW EITHER IN WESTERN NE OR KS,
WITH SOUTH WINDS RESULTING IN A DEEP MIXED LAYER BY AFTERNOON.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NE, AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO IA OR MO
THROUGH EVENING IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. THIS WOULD BE FUELED BY A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AS WELL, SUGGESTING AN
ORGANIZED SYSTEM MAY OCCUR. FOR NOW, LOW PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PLACEMENT OF ANY SUCH CORRIDOR.
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
...MID ATLANTIC...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN STATES ON SATURDAY, WITHIN A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. A
HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, SUPPORTING AN UNCAPPED AIR
MASS AND CONDITIONAL/LOCALIZED WIND RISK. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT
THIS TIME GIVEN POSSIBLE ANTECEDENT RAIN OR THUNDERSTORM AREAS, BUT
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WIND COULD BE ADDED IN LATER UPDATES.
..JEWELL.. 08/06/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 6, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2026
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SUNDAY/D4 THROUGH THURSDAY/D8 PERIOD, AN ELONGATED ZONE OF
THUNDERSTORM/WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR THIS PATTERN GIVEN
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING CORRIDORS OF STORMS EARLY EACH DAY, AND
VARIABILITY WITH THE POSITION OF THE ELONGATED WEST TO EAST FRONT.
HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS, WITH POSSIBLY STRONG
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH, COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER CANADA, MAY YIELD STORM
CORRIDORS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ONE OR MORE AREAS MAY BE
DENOTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS THE EVENTS NEAR IN TIME.
AT THIS TIME, ROUGH AREAS OF INTEREST INCLUDE THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY/D4, AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST
ON MONDAY/D5.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2026
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AS AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, PERMITTING STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 90+
DEGREES F AS RH VALUES QUICKLY DECLINE TO LESS THAN 20% AND
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH. THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EASTERN MONTANA BETWEEN 18-00Z, TRANSLATING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. AS THE FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO BROADLY NORTHERLY AT 15-25 MPH (GUSTS OVER 30 MPH) FOR A FEW
HOURS WHILE RH INCREASES OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO PLATEAU INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WHERE ERCS WILL RANGE FROM THE 80-95TH PERCENTILE, AND NDVI
PORTRAYS A SIGNIFICANT 30-DAY DECREASE IN LIVE GREEN VEGETATION.
ISOLATED MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, A
LIGHTNING IGNITION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORM THAT MANAGES
TO DEVELOP. ADDITIONALLY, PROLONGED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER, AND BRIEFLY BREEZY WINDS MAY ENCOURAGE LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND
ADJACENT HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE WIDESPREAD ERCS EXCEED THE 90TH
PERCENTILE.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/06/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2026
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A FLATTENING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN ON DAY 2/FRIDAY, WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RIDING OVER THE RIDGE ATOP THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PLUMES OF SMOKE THAT WILL
BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE CONUS WITHIN THE UPPER PATTERN. MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND UTAH, PROMOTING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AMID A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.
...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT AMID A REINFORCED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. ON DAY 2/FRIDAY. A
PROLONGED DRY AIRMASS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WORSENING FUEL CONDITIONS,
WITH FORECAST ANNUAL ERCS EXCEEDING THE 95-98TH PERCENTILES. WHILE
THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUSTAINED 15+ MPH WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED,
DIURNAL FLOW AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS AMID 10-20% RH AND
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS WILL PRESENT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS AND IMPACT ACTIVE WILDFIRES.
...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND UTAH.
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AND FORECAST PWATS OF 0.8" OR LESS. FUELS HAVE GROWN
MORE RECEPTIVE UNDER SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS,
PRESENTING A GREATER CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS. AS SUCH,
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS THE
REGION.
...CALIFORNIA...
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 100+ DEGREES F AND 5-15% RH ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING TERRAIN. THE
SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUSTAINED 15+ MPH WINDS FOR 3 HOURS OR GREATER
WILL BE LIMITED, PRECLUDING AN INTRODUCTION OF FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS; HOWEVER, PERIODS OF ONSHORE FLOW EXCEEDING 15 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS LOCALIZED INTERIOR REGIONS AND TERRAIN-FAVORED
AREAS, SUPPORTIVE OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WHERE FUELS ARE
RECEPTIVE.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA.. 08/06/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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