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LU9DCE > NEWS 02.08.26 13:00l 582 Lines 25800 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19004_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 02-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260802/1045Z 19004@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN AUG 2 08:32:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN AUG 2 08:32:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN AUG 2 08:32:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN AUG 2 08:32:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 2, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AD EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO
MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC PIEDMONT. THIS MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE THAT ONE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION WITHIN THE
WESTERLIES WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, IT
APPEARS THAT AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL OCCLUDE OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PRAIRIES DURING THE DAY TODAY, WITH ONE
TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES
BEFORE STALLING/WEAKENING ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS, AS
ANOTHER MORE SUBSTANTIVE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.
AT THE SAME TIME, A TRAILING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DIG INLAND OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THEN TURN EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO ROCKIES. AS IT DOES, IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME SUPPRESSION OF
INITIALLY MORE PROMINENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.
DOWNSTREAM, LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS LIKELY TO BE
MAINTAINED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. HOWEVER, THE MOST PROMINENT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALREADY APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING INCREASINGLY
SHEARED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH PERHAPS ONE EMERGING PERTURBATION CONSOLIDATING WITH
ANOTHER DIGGING IMPULSE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NORTHEASTWARD
MIGRATING SURFACE LOW, TRAILED BY A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SLOWLY
ADVANCING INTO AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
...EASTERN U.S...
TO THE EAST OF THE LARGER-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, EARLY DAY
CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND OTHERWISE GENERALLY WEAK
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY TEND TO AT LEAST
SLOW, IF NOT INHIBIT, BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER,
CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED INTENSIFYING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, IF NOT EARLIER.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY TEND TO FOCUS WITHIN A PRE-COLD FRONTAL
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER
GREAT LAKES VICINITY, WHERE IT COULD BE ENHANCED BY 20-40 KT
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER, AND WITHIN
SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO LEE SURFACE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST CAPE IN EXCESS
OF 1000 J/KG, AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING IN THE
PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, LOCALIZED STRONG
DOWNBURSTS MAY GENERATE A FEW DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS.
WITHIN THE BETTER SHEAR ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO LOWER
GREAT LAKES VICINITY, THE EVOLUTION OF TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO DOES NOT APPEAR
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION, GIVEN FORECAST SURFACE DEW POINTS
NEAR/ABOVE 70F. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR, BASED ON
VARIED MODEL GUIDANCE.
...NORTH DAKOTA...
SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE AT LEAST ATTEMPTS AT
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE WEAK
PRE-COLD FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHING. HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE UNCLEAR DUE TO LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH VERY WARM AND DRY MID-LEVELS, ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. IT APPEARS THAT SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY AWAIT INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH BY LATE TONIGHT. BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ELEVATED OR HIGH-BASED
IN NATURE, BUT PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RISK FOR HAIL AND/OR
GUSTY WINDS.
..KERR/CHALMERS.. 08/02/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 2, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND A SMALL PART OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA, IN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND,
AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE
DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN SD INTO NORTHWEST ON, ALONG A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, WHERE IT WILL LINK WITH A SECONDARY CYCLONE OVER EASTERN CO.
ELSEWHERE, AN AMPLIFIED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WITH A PRECEDING BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
OVERSPREADING THAT REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, WHILE A TRAILING FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND.
...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY FROM CENTRAL ND
INTO THE ND-MN RED RIVER VALLEY, WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT THE TERMINUS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ). THE LLJ
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, AIDING IN AIR MASS RECOVERY IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY STORMS. BY AFTERNOON, THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING, BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE, BUT CAPPED
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1000-2000 J/KG.
RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID- TO LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
IN EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN, WHERE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD ERODE THE CAP. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
40-50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED STORM
MODES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE PRESENCE OF A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL LEAD TO
SIZABLE, CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-300
M2/S2 DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED CAPPING
WITHIN THE INFLOW AIR MASS, POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND ONLY A
SMALL AMOUNT OF 0-3 KM CAPE.
STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT IN SD AND NE REMAINS
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
...NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND. ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO LINGER INTO AFTERNOON,
LIMITING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER, WHERE
STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, NAMELY IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE GREATER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE GILA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN
NEARER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SUBSEQUENT MERGING OF THE
SEPARATE REGIMES APPEARS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPE UP TO
1000-1500 J/KG SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS,
ESPECIALLY IF SOME COLD POOL ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR.
..MEAD.. 08/02/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 2, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS APPEAR
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD, CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES, TO THE NORTH OF AN ELONGATING UPPER HIGH OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WITHIN THAT PATTERN,
THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL THAT A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID MO
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE BOUNDARY TRAILING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
A SIMILAR SETUP TO THAT ON MONDAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ENHANCING
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOWER DESERT. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BOOST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
AROUND 30 KT, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SOME COLD POOL ORGANIZATION AND
AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS TO LIMIT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN IA; HOWEVER, THE ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE
FORCING MECHANISMS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ANY
SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ELEVATED STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. WHILE THERE IS SOME MODEL VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR MUCAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS, DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF SEASONABLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR, THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER STRUCTURE WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A CAP CENTERED
AROUND 600 MB LEAD TO UNCERTAINTY IN SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND SUSTENANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP,
THE PRESENCE OF 30-40+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SOME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS
CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A 5% PROBABILITY CONTOUR.
..MEAD.. 08/02/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 2, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...
BROAD TROUGHING WILL EXIST FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED, CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BOUNDARY SETTLING MORE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MO
VALLEY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW POTENTIALLY
MODULATING THE LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT AND THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA FROM
EASTERN KS INTO MO AS BEING THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS
YET TO BE KNOWN. AS SUCH, NO AREA WILL BE DELINEATED IN THIS
FORECAST.
OTHER AREAS OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST AZ.
...DAYS 5 AND 6/ THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION IS FORECAST ON
THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL SIGNAL FOR AN EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION THAT A WEAK FRONT OR WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE TRAILING
EXTENSION OF THAT BOUNDARY STRETCHING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THAT BOUNDARY, WIDESPREAD 70+ F
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS, LEADING TO MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL COINCIDE WITH A BELT OF 30-40 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW.
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE OZARK PLATEAU AND
AZ THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ON FRIDAY, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SHEAR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ON WITH 30-40 KT OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE,
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT.
...DAYS 7 AND 8/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE VARIOUS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SLIGHT EASTWARD
SHIFT OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING
AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE
HIGH POSITIONED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BENEATH THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT. AS SUCH,
SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL FOR A SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE
INTO THE MIDWEST, WHERE SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN
UTAH...WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO...AND
MONTANA...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY,
WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE AND A DRY COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. DRY/WINDY
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN
GREAT/HIGH PLAINS.
...MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND
EASTERN IDAHO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (12 UTC) TODAY, WITH LEE
TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING AND COLORADO.
WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT/LEE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMONLY 15-25
MPH SUNDAY MORNING FROM NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN AND
NORTHERN MONTANA, WITH THE DIRECTION VARYING FROM WESTERLY (NORTHERN
MONTANA) TO NORTHERLY (NORTHEASTERN WYOMING). ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW (35-45+ KTS AT 700 MB) LINGERING ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADA
BORDER WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA INTO THE EVENING, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO NEAR 15 MPH FARTHER EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS (WESTERN ND/SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY)
BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE WIND GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY,
GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH (LOCALLY UP TO 50-60 MPH IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES) WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS MONTANA THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, RH VALUES ARE NOTED TO RANGE FROM 10-25%
ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA AS OF 530 UTC SUNDAY, WITH ONLY MODEST
RECOVERIES EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE START OF THE PERIOD AT 12 UTC. THIS
WILL FAVOR QUICK RH REDUCTIONS TO 15-20% BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY (LOCALLY DROPPING TO 10% LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON). WITH ERCS COMMONLY EXCEEDING THE 90TH AND 95TH
PERCENTILES (98TH PERCENTILE IN NORTHERN MONTANA), THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD (6+ HOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS) OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FORECAST FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ALSO FORECAST AHEAD OF THE LEE
TROUGH FROM THE KS/CO/NE BORDER VICINITY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SD
WHERE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% THIS AFTERNOON.
FINALLY, GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY PROGRESS
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING
A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUSTAINED 15-20 MPH WINDS (WITH POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH).
...CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING...
WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, GENERALLY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY, WITH MAGNITUDES
UP TO 25 MPH (PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER) FOR UP TO 6+ HOURS IN SOME
LOCATIONS AMID RH OF 10-20%. FARTHER EAST, INITIALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING WILL ACCELERATE TO 20-25 MPH
AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY AMID RH REDUCTIONS TO 10-20%. WHILE
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL, ERCS ARE
ALREADY NOTED TO BE AROUND THE 80TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES OR GREATER,
AND PRECEDING DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY LIKELY AIDED IN THE
CURING OF FINE FUELS. THUS, THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS, RH, AND FUELS
WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING BEGINNING LATE
THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
...EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO...
LINGERING, ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW UP TO AROUND 15 MPH (LOCALLY TO 20 MPH) WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH, PRIMARILY IN FAVORED GAP/TERRAIN FLOW
AREAS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE CASCADES. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20-25% (EASTERN WA/NORTHERN ID) TO
10-20% (SOUTHEASTERN OREGON). THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
AREAS THAT EXPERIENCED CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
...GREAT BASIN...
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS RANGING FROM WESTERLY
(CENTRAL/WESTERN/NORTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN UTAH) TO SOUTHWESTERLY
(SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND SOUTHWESTERN UTAH) ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH (LOCALLY UP TO 20 MPH) ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO
5-15% ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION, WITH ERCS NOTED TO RANGE FROM THE
80TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS
WERE EXPANDED WESTWARD TO NEAR THE NEVADA/CALIFORNIA BORDER WITH
THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE/HREF
PROBABILITIES.
..CHALMERS.. 08/02/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH/GREAT PLAINS ON D2/MONDAY, WITH ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD, EJECTING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN
THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS,
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SIMULTANEOUSLY PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH/GREAT PLAINS AND LEE TROUGHING EXTENDING
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
BOTH WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND PRECEDING THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS
ON SUNDAY.
...NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE HIGH/GREAT PLAINS...
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY (PERHAPS EVEN NORTHEASTERLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING) WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST
AMID MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% ACROSS EASTERN/NORTHERN WYOMING,
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA, THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE
SOUTHWEST, WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
AND VERY LOW RH OF 10-15% ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN
NEVADA/CENTRAL IDAHO INTO NORTHERN UTAH, NORTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. TO THE SOUTH, SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15-20 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% ARE FORECAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS PRECEDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH. DESPITE RECENT RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION, FUELS ARE NOTED TO COMMONLY EXCEED
THE 80TH TO 90TH PERCENTILES (95TH PERCENTILE IN SOME LOCATIONS).
THIS COMBINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND FUEL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
THE STRONGEST. THE PRIMARY CHANGE WITH THIS OUTLOOK CYCLE WAS TO
EXPAND THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BASED ON RECENT HREF WIND/RH
PROBABILITY TRENDS. WHILE ELEVATED WIND/RH CRITERIA ARE LIKELY TO BE
MET FARTHER WEST INTO THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NM, GREATER RECENT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS PRECLUDE AN
EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS INTO THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, INCLUDING NORTHERN COLORADO...
ISOLATED, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE HIGH-TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COLORADO MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH LCLS OF 4+ KM AND PW OF
0.5-0.75". THESE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD
PRODUCE LIGHTNING WITH LITTLE WETTING RAINFALL. WHILE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IGNITION MAY BE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERLAPPING DRIER, MORE RECEPTIVE
FUELS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK CYCLES, HOWEVER.
..CHALMERS.. 08/02/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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