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LU9DCE > NEWS 01.08.26 13:00l 569 Lines 25476 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18924_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 01-AUG
Path: IZ3LSV<IK6IHL<IK7NXU<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260801/1045Z 18924@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT AUG 1 08:22:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT AUG 1 08:22:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 1 08:22:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT AUG 1 08:22:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC AUG 1, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FROM SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO.
...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A
NORTH-TO-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S F. AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR,
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO FIRST TAKE
PLACE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL
MORE DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
ALONG THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY, MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE
1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE
NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA. NEAR THIS AXIS, A LOW-LEVEL
SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH 850 MB WINDS SPEEDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 200 MS/S2. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT, MAINLY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD BE MINIMIZED IN AREAS WHERE TOO MANY STORMS
FORM. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, A TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE IS
EXPECTED. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LINE THAT CAN
BECOME ORGANIZED, WITH THIS POTENTIAL PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AT THE SURFACE, AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM WEST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID
60S F. ALONG AND NEAR THIS AXIS, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION, WITH STORMS FORMING AND
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATION OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. THE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH PARTS OF WEST TEXAS DURING
THE EVENING. MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 30 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM, WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. ALONG AND NEAR THIS AXIS, MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, LOW TO
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT FORM WITHIN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
COULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 08/01/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 1, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...AND OVER A
PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF GEORGIA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK EXISTS ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS. THAT FEATURE WILL BE LOOSELY LINKED TO A
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN ON INTO QC. ELSEWHERE,
AN INTENSE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM AB INTO SK WITH AN ATTENDING
BELT OF 50-70 KT WINDS AT 500 MB SPREADING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WITH A TRAILING WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. FARTHER NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
...UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITHIN THE
WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE OH VALLEY LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF A MOIST AND AT LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAPPING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
IN SOME AREAS. WHERE CLOUD BREAKS CAN OCCUR, INCREASED DAYTIME
HEATING WILL SUPPORT CORRIDORS OF MLCAPE UP TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
MORE INTENSE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
AREAS OF GREATER INSTABILITY, FROM NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY SOUTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO GA.
THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT IS FORECAST NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW, WHERE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE, GIVEN
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION. ANOTHER AREA OF POTENTIAL INTEREST IS
ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WHILE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE
WINDS COMBINED WITH A BROADENING AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HOWEVER, A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE
PROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRENCE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 2%.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED,
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. DESPITE PRE-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
90S TO AROUND 100, AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO CAPPING AT THE BASE OF AN EML AND THE ABSENCE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT. SOME OF THE 00Z MODELS INDICATE A GREATER POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT (MAINLY ELEVATED) LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE CAP IS GRADUALLY ERODED BY INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG SUGGESTS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE LEVEL 1/MARGINAL RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE.
..MEAD.. 08/01/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 1, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND A SMALL PART OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. MORE ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, AND IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAKS INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY MORNING WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WESTERN
SD INTO NORTHERN MN, ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE, A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITHIN THE BASE OF A TROUGH SITUATED OVER QC. THAT MID-LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND
WITHIN THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH. IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY STORMS, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED
AT THAT TIME ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST
MN, WHERE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD ERODE THE CAP.
THERE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
WITH STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. POTENTIALLY LARGER
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND RESULTANT HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS MAY
CURB THE TORNADO THREAT TO SOME EXTENT.
STORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT IN SD AND NE REMAINS
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, THE
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL.
...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY-DAY STORMS LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, WHERE STRONGER
HEATING CAN OCCUR, THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. FORCING WITHIN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK LIFTING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRONT TO YIELD AN
INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. AS SUCH, A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 08/01/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC AUG 1, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/TUESDAY...
A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH A SERIES OF SUBTLE DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THAT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE BOUNDARY SETTLING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE, WHERE AN OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE.
ELSEWHERE, A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ COULD SUPPORT A LOCALLY GREATER RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS.
THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN BOTH AREAS IS CURRENTLY
TOO UNCERTAIN TO DELINEATE AN AREA.
...DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...
THE BROAD, CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CONUS WITH A BELT OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SIMILAR TO DAY 4/TUESDAY, SOME SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MO INTO MID MS VALLEYS,
AS WELL AS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE, SO NO AREA WILL BE INCLUDED.
...DAYS 6-8/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING
THE CONTINUATION OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH
LOWER-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN THE LOCATION
OF RELEVANT BOUNDARIES THAT MIGHT FOCUS SEVERE STORMS. THAT BEING
SAID, MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE AI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE
INCLUSION OF AN AREA IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN OREGON AND FAR WESTERN
IDAHO INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON...THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...
...SYNOPSIS...
***DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON TODAY.***
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH COLUMBIA.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SURFACE LOW WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA
AS A DRY COLD FRONT PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SETUP WILL FOSTER
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES,
AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON.
...CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON INTO NORTHERN OREGON...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT, LIKELY
ACCELERATING TO 20-25 MPH AS RH BEGINS TO DECLINE. THE COLD FRONT IS
THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WIND SHIFT TO BROADLY WESTERLY (AND
PERHAPS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE EVENING). CONCURRENTLY,
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW (35-45 KT AT 700 MB) WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AND GRADUALLY ATTAIN A MORE PERPENDICULAR ORIENTATION
RELATIVE TO THE CASCADES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, THIS WILL FOSTER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR VERY
STRONG, DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES, WITH
SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 30+ MPH (STRONGEST IN THE LEE
OF THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS AND IN FAVORED TERRAIN/GAP FLOW AREAS),
GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-50+ MPH, AND RH FALLING TO 5-15%.
ERCS ARE COMMONLY APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE, AND
A FEW LARGE WILDFIRES ARE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS
COMBINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND FUEL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (WITH WINDS POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 25+ MPH FOR UP TO 6 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE EVENTUAL RH
INCREASES ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT, A LONGER DURATION OF ELEVATED
WIND CONDITIONS (15+ MPH) IS ALSO FORECAST, POTENTIALLY LASTING
12-14 HOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ONLY A MINOR EXPANSION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA WAS MADE WITH THIS
OUTLOOK CYCLE.
A BROADER AREA OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
FORECAST FARTHER SOUTH FROM NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OREGON AND WESTERN IDAHO. ACROSS
THIS REGION, SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERLAP VERY LOW RH OF 5-20% AND ERCS ABOVE THE 90TH TO 98TH
PERCENTILES.
...NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
WITH A 55-65+ KT 700 MB JET EMERGING ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG, WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF UP TO 30+ MPH (AND GUSTS OF 50+) BEGINNING DURING
THE AFTERNOON (21-00 UTC) AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RH VALUES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM 10-20% IN THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO 20-35% OVERNIGHT AMID ERCS AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE,
SUPPORTING CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AND
RH VALUES OF 10-15% WILL ALSO PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MONTANA. WHILE RH WILL INCREASE TO 15-25%
OVERNIGHT, A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY SURGE (15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 30-40+ MPH) WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
...CENTRAL IDAHO INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH (LOCALLY STRONGER) AMID VERY LOW RH AROUND
10%. WHILE RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO PRECLUDES THE
EXPANSION OF CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS, THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. IN
ADDITION, THIS WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A PRECONDITIONING-STYLE EVENT
LEADING INTO EXPANSIVE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON D2/SUNDAY.
..CHALMERS.. 08/01/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHERN UTAH...WESTERN
WYOMING...CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO...AND MONTANA...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
ON D2/SUNDAY, WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE
REGION AND A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO PROGRESS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A COMBINATION OF DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN,
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN GREAT/HIGH PLAINS.
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED HOLDOVERS TO EMERGE FROM
THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEK ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO
AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
...MONTANA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A DRY COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND
EASTERN IDAHO AT THE START OF THE D2 PERIOD (12 UTC SUNDAY). STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW (35-45 KTS AT 700 MB) IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG
THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. COUPLED WITH A
TIGHTENED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS, THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MONTANA (INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT) BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY. SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THESE
MAGNITUDES PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MONTANA BUT WEAKENING
TO 15-20 MPH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA, WESTERN SD/ND, AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. WIND GUSTS TO 30-40+ MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
(PRIMARILY ACROSS MONTANA), WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS MOST LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, RH RECOVERIES ARE FORECAST TO BE MODEST
AT BEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR QUICK
RH REDUCTIONS TO 15-20% BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY
(LOCALLY DROPPING TO 10% LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON).
WITH ERCS COMMONLY EXCEEDING THE 90TH AND 95TH PERCENTILES (98TH
PERCENTILE IN CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA), THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE AN EXTENDED PERIOD (6+ HOURS FOR SOME LOCATIONS) OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE FORECAST FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH PRECLUDES
FARTHER EASTWARD EXPANSION INTO NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME, BUT
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION. ADDITIONALLY, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
MAY PASS THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHICH COULD BRING A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A BRIEF
SURGE IN MAGNITUDE. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH AND RH
REDUCTIONS TO 15-20% ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA, WHICH WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. A SHIFT TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN WYOMING...
RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DRY COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
EXTEND FROM NORTHERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN IDAHO EARLY
IN THE PERIOD ON SUNDAY. WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, GENERALLY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FUNNEL DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER
VALLEY, WITH MAGNITUDES UP TO 25 MPH (PERHAPS HIGHER) FOR AT LEAST 6
HOURS AMID RH REDUCTIONS TO 15-20%. FARTHER EAST IN WESTERN WYOMING,
INITIALLY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AND ACCELERATE TO AROUND 20 MPH AMID RH OF 10-20%. WHILE
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED RECENT RAINFALL, ERCS ARE
ALREADY NOTED TO BE AROUND THE 80-95TH PERCENTILES, AND DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON D1/SATURDAY WILL AID IN THE DRYING OF FINE
FUELS. THUS, THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS, RH, AND DRY FUELS WILL
PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO
INTO WESTERN WYOMING BEGINNING LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
...EASTERN WASHINGTON/OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO...
LINGERING, ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (INCLUDING EASTERN WA/OR AND NORTHERN ID) MAY
SUPPORT SUSTAINED WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO AROUND 15 MPH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
20-25% (EASTERN WA, NORTHERN ID, AND NORTHERN OR) TO 10-20%
(SOUTHEASTERN OR). THIS MAY PROMOTE SEVERAL HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY ACROSS AREAS THAT ARE FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
D1/SATURDAY.
...GREAT BASIN...
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH AMID VERY LOW RH OF AROUND 10% SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH ERCS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 80TH TO
95TH PERCENTILES ACROSS THE REGION, THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN/NORTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN/NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
..CHALMERS.. 08/01/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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