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LU9DCE > NEWS 31.07.26 13:04l 458 Lines 19257 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18850_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 31-JUL
Path: IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IR1UAW<IW2OHX<GB7OSW<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260731/1045Z 18850@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI JUL 31 08:53:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF FRI JUL 31 08:53:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI JUL 31 08:53:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF FRI JUL 31 08:53:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC JUL 31, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FROM EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO.
...OZARKS/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AT MID-LEVELS, A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
OZARKS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM,
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE MOIST AXIS,
WITH MLCAPE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY, MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE WESTERLY AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE MOIST SECTOR. THIS WILL RESULT A
MIXED MODE WITH SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS BOTH
POSSIBLE. ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS, 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK NEAR 7 C/KM WHICH WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY TO MID EVENING
AS STORMS MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY AFTERNOON. AN AXIS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS
TEMPERATURES BECOME HOT IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPROCK OF WEST
TEXAS. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEEDING 40 DEGREES F IN SOME AREAS WILL RESULT IN
A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
FURTHER WEST INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO, AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. STORMS WILL FORM IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS. HAIL
COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..BROYLES/CHALMERS.. 07/31/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 31, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND PART OF NORTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND
APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY, MIDDLE TENNESSEE, AND PART
OF NORTHERN ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BROADER AREA
OF MORE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FROM PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND GEORGIA.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY
OCCUR OVER NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
PROGRESS INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS WITH A BELT OF STRONGER
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE IN THOSE AREAS. IN
THE LOW LEVELS, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL IL INTO
NORTHERN IN DURING THE DAY BEFORE REACHING SOUTHEAST LOWER MI LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) WILL PRECEDE THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS, SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY, TN VALLEY, AND
MUCH OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TX.
...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO MS AND AL WITHIN THE
WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY STORMS, AND WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN
OCCUR, BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG NORTH OF
THE OH RIVER, TO AS HIGH AS 2000-2500 J/KG FROM MIDDLE TN INTO PARTS
OF MS AND AL.
RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY- TO
MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN THE RELATIVELY NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS OVER IN WITH SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH KY AND TN INTO MS AND AL. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF
30-35 KT IS FORECAST FROM KY TO NORTH OF THE OH RIVER WITH VECTOR
ORIENTATIONS LARGELY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR
DECREASES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT ALONG THE FRONT; HOWEVER, THAT MAY
BE OFFSET TO SOME EXTENT BY A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY
AND AT LEAST MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESIDE FROM CENTRAL KY INTO
NORTHERN AL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, WHERE A LEVEL 2/SLIGHT
RISK HAS BEEN DELINEATED. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. SOME TORNADO RISK MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY INTO IN AND OH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING ALONG THE LLJ, WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
STRONGER. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GENERALLY POOR
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS OF STRONGEST SHEAR, WHICH MAY TEND TO
LIMIT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL APPEARS
LIMITED DUE TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND RESULTANT POOR LAPSE
RATES.
...NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THAT FEATURE COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASING UPSLOPE COMPONENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
RATON MESA, AS WELL AS SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE
WEST-CENTRAL NM. BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S COMBINED WITH
STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT BY AFTERNOON,
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH THE INITIAL
HAZARD BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. INDIVIDUAL STORMS MAY TEND TO
CLUSTER BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE 00Z CAMS INDICATING
AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL NM INTO SOUTHEAST AZ.
..MEAD.. 07/31/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 31, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA...AND OVER
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS EXISTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES, OH AND TN VALLEYS, AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID INTO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY, WHILE A TRAILING FRONT EDGES EAST THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ELSEWHERE, A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF
50-60 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS SPREADING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITHIN A ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG A LOW-LEVEL JET. SOME
OF THE EARLY-DAY STORMS MAY LINGER INTO AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER LIMITING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. WHERE CLOUD BREAKS
CAN OCCUR, INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S TO MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CORRIDORS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF WHICH IS FROM SOUTHERN VA
INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF GREATER INSTABILITY
FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO CAROLINAS. IN GENERAL, STORMS MAY
REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED, POSING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND RISK
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE UPPER OH VALLEY, WHERE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS MODES, GIVEN SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION.
...NORTHERN PLAINS...
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO 70S LOCALLY WILL COINCIDE
WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD A MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE, BUT CAPPED AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER, LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS.
ON THE CONDITION THAT STORMS DEVELOP AND ARE SUSTAINED, THE PRESENCE
OF 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM MODES, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH AN ASSOCIATED LARGE
HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT. THAT CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST
FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN STORM DEVELOPMENT, ONLY 5% PROBABILITIES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 07/31/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 31, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/MONDAY...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN
TANDEM WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 40-50+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER. AS SUCH,
THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES CAPABLE OF A MORE
CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FROM EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN.
MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
FRONT INTO NE.
ELSEWHERE, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER WESTERN
QC INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH AN ATTENDING BELT OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT
THE SURFACE, A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. WHERE STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT, AIDED BY 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
...DAYS 5 AND 6/TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
A BROADER-SCALE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES ON TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE ACCELERATING
INTO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE BOUNDARY STALLING
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN; HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
...DAYS 7 AND 8/THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WITH A BELT OF MODESTLY ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT PATTERN THAT MAY FOCUS A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL
ACROSS AI GUIDANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY/DAY 7. MODEL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. AN EMBEDDED, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PRECEDE THE LARGER TROUGH AND MOVE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WEAKENING. HOT, DRY,
AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST,
ESPECIALLY THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD,
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH PRECLUDES THE INCLUSION OF
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS, HOWEVER.
ISOLATED, DRIER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT THE LATEST SREF/HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LESS
THAN A 20% CHANCE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
FARTHER EAST INTO PORTIONS OF WYOMING, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
TO BE WETTER AND OVER LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS. ELSEWHERE, MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
AND ALONG/EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO.
..CHALMERS.. 07/31/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA
BASIN IN CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN OREGON AND FAR WESTERN
IDAHO INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON...THE IDAHO PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON D2/SATURDAY AS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALBERTA, WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PROGRESSING RAPIDLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDERLYING A 35-45 KT 700 MB
JET WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AMID A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THE BEST OVERLAP OF THESE
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WASHINGTON WHERE DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE
OF THE CASCADES IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE RH REDUCTIONS TO 15-20% IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20-30 MPH (LOCALLY
HIGHER IN FAVORED TERRAIN/GAP FLOW AREAS) AND GUSTS OF 35-45+ MPH. A
FEW LARGE WILDFIRES ARE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION, AND ERCS
ARE NOTED TO BE APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE. THIS
COMBINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL AND FUEL CONDITIONS SUPPORTS AN
UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
WHILE THE BEST OVERLAP OF THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
WASHINGTON, A BROADER AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
ALSO EXPECTED FROM EASTERN OREGON AND FAR WESTERN IDAHO INTO EASTERN
WASHINGTON, THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, AND NORTHWESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA. ACROSS THIS REGION, SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
ARE FORECAST TO OVERLAP VERY LOW RH OF 5-20% (WITH THE LOWEST RH
VALUES FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OREGON AND IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA) AND ERCS COMMONLY ABOVE THE 90TH
TO 98TH PERCENTILES. RECENT GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A SEPARATE
AREA OF STRONGER, PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (UP TO 20
MPH) MAY MANIFEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SUSTAINED WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH, VERY LOW RH OF
5-20%, AND ERCS RANGING FROM THE 80TH TO 98TH PERCENTILES WILL ALSO
FOSTER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS A LARGER AREA
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, EASTERN PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
..CHALMERS.. 07/31/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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