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LU9DCE > NEWS 24.06.26 07:11l 785 Lines 27387 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16009_LU9DCE
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Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 18-JUN
Path: IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE
Sent: 260618/1045Z 16009@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC TORNADO WATCH 349
WW 349 TORNADO IN KY OH WV 180835Z - 181500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
335 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN OHIO
WEST VIRGINIA
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 335 AM UNTIL 1000 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING STORMS INCLUDING AN INTENSE
LINEAR BOWING SYSTEM AND SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH CONTINUED
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST OF LOUISVILLE KY TO 45
MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BECKLEY WV. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 347...WW 348...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 29040.
...GUYER
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 348
WW 348 TORNADO LA MS CW 180320Z - 181100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1020
PM UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD INLAND
INTO THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND ENLARGING
HODOGRAPHS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HOUMA LA
TO 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT MS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 344...WW 347...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 20030.
...SMITH
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 347
WW 347 TORNADO IL IN KY OH 180210Z - 180900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN OHIO
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 1010
PM UNTIL 500 AM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WATCH AREA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A
FEW TORNADOES, INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN
THE INTENSE FLOW FIELDS ALOFT. SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE AND MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT AS A MIX OF A LINEAR
CLUSTER AND SUPERCELLS PROBABLY EVOLVES.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES EAST OF CINCINNATI OH TO 65
MILES NORTHWEST OF EVANSVILLE IN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 342...WW 343...WW
344...WW 345...
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN
STORM MOTION VECTOR 28045.
...SMITH
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 349 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0349 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS FOR WATCH 0349 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 348 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0348 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 348
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/18/26
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 348
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC005-007-033-037-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-093-
095-099-101-103-105-109-117-121-180940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE
JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. MARTIN ST. MARY
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE
WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
MSC039-045-047-059-109-131-180940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE HANCOCK HARRISON
JACKSON PEARL RIVER STONE
GMZ435-436-455-529-531-532-533-534-535-536-541-543-551-553-554-
READ MORE
========================================
SPC TORNADO WATCH 347 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0347 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 347
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SLO TO
45 W LUK TO 20 NNE LUK TO 30 NW UNI.
..BROYLES..06/18/26
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...ILN...RLX...JKL...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 347
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-065-185-191-193-180940-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS HAMILTON WABASH
WAYNE WHITE
INC019-025-037-043-051-061-077-115-117-123-125-129-143-147-155-
163-173-175-180940-
IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS
FLOYD GIBSON HARRISON
JEFFERSON OHIO ORANGE
PERRY PIKE POSEY
SCOTT SPENCER SWITZERLAND
VANDERBURGH WARRICK WASHINGTON
KYC015-023-037-041-043-069-073-077-081-089-097-103-111-117-135-
161-163-181-185-187-191-201-209-211-223-180940-
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MD 1177
MD 1177 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 347... FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR
SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN INDIANA...FAR SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 347...
VALID 180729Z - 180900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 347 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK
WILL CONTINUE OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA, FAR SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY. A WEATHER
WATCH EXTENSION OR REPLACEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH OF
WATCH 347.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STRONG STORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG AN
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED ZONE OF MAXIMIZED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FROM
NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
ANALYZED BY THE RAP WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG IN
NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO NEAR 2500 J/KG IN FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, INSTABILITY
HAS INCREASED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND THIS TREND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE. FOR THIS REASON, A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE BAND GRADUALLY SAGS
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH STORM MODE
IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE, REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS DO SHOW VERY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY EXCEEDING
500 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING CELL
ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BAND. AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS IS ALSO EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING PARTS OF THE LINE.
..BROYLES.. 06/18/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...
LAT...LON 38468774 38618735 38768674 38928585 39128469 39238324
39098279 38748248 38308247 37928270 37738345 37498588
37498722 37618764 37848788 38278794 38468774
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
READ MORE
========================================
SPC MD 1176
MD 1176 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 348... FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 348...
VALID 180704Z - 180900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 348 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NEAR/TO THE SOUTH OF I-12/I-10
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS (PREDAWN).
DISCUSSION...RELATED TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR, REGIONAL
WSR-88D DATA INDICATE A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (30-40 KT) IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS SAME TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A FURTHER
STRENGTHENING AND GRADUAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE MOST BUOYANT LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL TEND TO STAY RELEGATED TO WITHIN 50-75 MILES OF THE SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THIS BEING THE
PRIMARY AREA FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
..GUYER.. 06/18/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29179176 30659097 31029005 30978921 30518887 29368910
28858949 28789061 29179176
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 18, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC...OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
KENTUCKY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR
MARGINAL HAIL. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM UPSTATE NEW
YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH DAMAGING GUSTS OR EVEN A TORNADO. A FEW
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES, AND
SCATTERED STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.
...FROM KY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
MODERATE MID TO HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL EXIST FROM THE OH VALLEY
TO MID ATLANTIC, SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY WAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS
REGION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE MIDLEVEL DRYING, WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SLOWER MOVING PORTION OF
THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY FROM KY
INTO WV, WITH PERHAPS WIND OR EVEN TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SRH WILL BE
HIGH AT THAT TIME. AS HEATING OCCURS DURING THE DAY, BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AS WELL AS VEERING AND WEAKENING WINDS AT 850 MB MAY REDUCE
TORNADO RISK. HOWEVER, AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR BOTH CELLS AND FAST-MOVING
CLUSTERS OF STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
...NORTHEAST...
WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, A LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, WITH
A 90 KT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX AND COOLING ALOFT MOVING ACROSS NY AND
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INTO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION.
SURFACE HEATING AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING 60S F DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE EXPECTED. RELATIVELY WARM
PROFILES WILL DEVELOP NEAR 300 MB, SOMEWHAT LIMITING STORM DEPTH.
HOWEVER, AMPLE MIDLEVEL COOLING WILL STILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. CELLS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN NY BY 18Z, AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST,
PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL AND SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS INITIALLY. THE
LOW EL HEIGHT MAY MITIGATE HAIL PRODUCTION SOMEWHAT. BY LATE
AFTERNOON, A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS ENCOUNTER A
STRONGER SRH ENVIRONMENT FARTHER EAST.
...PARTS OF MS/AL/GA/FL...
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR WILL INCREASE
FROM LA INTO GA TODAY, AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVE
ACROSS MS/AL/GA. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS WHICH
WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OUT OF LA/MS INTO AL, THE FL PANHANDLE, AND
EVENTUALLY INTO GA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WARM, AREAS OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MID 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED BANDS OF STORMS, SOME WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS.
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED TORNADO RISK.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND THESE WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
...OK INTO NORTHWEST TX...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE, OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TODAY, PUSHING WELL SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL FEATURE 70S F DEWPOINTS, WHILE DAYTIME
HEATING BRINGS MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE. SOUTH OF
THIS COLD FRONT, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN TX
WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING WILL OCCUR.
ISOLATED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE PRESENT FROM THE KS/OK BORDER
AREA EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS, AND MARGINAL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED CAPE. ANY STORMS THAT FORM NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
GUSTS. THE GREATEST RISK OF LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTHWEST TX, WHERE THE FRONT
WILL BE MORE FAVORABLY TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK,
BUT EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL/WEINMAN.. 06/18/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 18, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FROM NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
...MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BELT OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF A PRIOR FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY MODEST (GENERALLY 50S F
DEWPOINTS), BUT COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM WILL SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION (AROUND 500-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE). FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES
AND ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH AROUND 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES. ISOLATED HIGHER-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS. ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...ARKLATEX VICINITY THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES...
MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ONGOING MCS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OR
FAR SOUTHERN OK AT FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE MORNING GIVEN MODESTLY ENHANCED
MID/UPPER FLOW AND A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY. THIS MCS AND/OR REMNANT MCV MAY CONTINUE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TX OR TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH
THE DAY, TRACKING ALONG A SOUTHWARD-SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST VICINITY, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE, WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES COMMON. THIS WILL AID
IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED SURFACE
BOUNDARY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, BUT WATER LADEN DOWNDRAFTS
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. IT IS UNCLEAR IF CONVECTION WILL
BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING CLUSTER, BUT IF THIS OCCURS, DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
WOULD INCREASE.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SMALL MCS OR CLUSTER ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE
SPREADS NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH AFTERNOON, STRONG GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...FLORIDA...
A SEASONALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS
NORTH/CENTRAL FL ON FRIDAY. PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 20-30 KT MIDLEVEL LOW, AND THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CELLS ALONG PARTS OF THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FL AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD-SAGGING SURFACE BOUNDARY. AMPLE MOISTURE/HIGH PW VALUES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..LEITMAN.. 06/18/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 18, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS VICINITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD, EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z, AND BREAKING DOWN UPPER RIDGING. AS
THIS OCCURS, MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A LEE LOW WILL
DEEPEN IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN CO. A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER AND ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER.
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE (MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS) NORTHWARD ACROSS
KS, WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG) ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NE/KS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM FAR SOUTHEAST WY INTO
EASTERN CO. AS STORMS DEVELOP EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY FOSTER UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
INTO ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS. OVERALL, SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF STORMS
GROW UPSCALE, DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING.
..LEITMAN.. 06/18/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 18, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/SUNDAY - MID-MS VALLEY VICINITY...
A WEAK MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE MID-MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST IN
TANDEM WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM, THOUGH THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THIS
OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN. FURTHERMORE, AN ONGOING MCS COULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN NE/KS AND THE ADJACENT MO VALLEY SUNDAY
MORNING. HOW THIS CONVECTION EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY IS ALSO
UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS, RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEY, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER OH
VALLEYS. SOME WHERE RISK APPEARS LIKELY, EITHER FROM REINVIGORATED
MORNING CONVECTION, OR FROM NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY INTO PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES, WILL HOLD OFF ON
INTRODUCING 15 PERCENT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME, BUT AREAS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
...DAYS 5-8/MONDAY-THURSDAY - PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST...
MODEST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF NOTABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING.
WHILE SOME SEVERE RISK IS LIKELY EACH DAY, THIS RISK WILL BE DRIVEN
BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EACH DAY. OVERALL
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. MEANWHILE, A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
...DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INVERTED-V PROFILES AND
0.4-0.7 INCH PW WILL FAVOR MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS, AND GIVEN
INCREASINGLY DRY/RECEPTIVE FUELS, ISOLATED LIGHTNING-INDUCED
IGNITIONS ARE A CONCERN.
FARTHER EAST, A MIX OF WET-DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN AZ INTO SOUTHWESTERN NM -- ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEPER MIDLEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. HERE, A
DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, RESULTING IN SOME CONCERN FOR LIGHTNING-INDUCED
IGNITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE DRY. HOWEVER, THE OVERLAP OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
...CENTRAL NC AND VICINITY...
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, RESULTING IN 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS. DIURNAL HEATING AHEAD OF
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND EVENTUALLY RAINFALL MAY YIELD A BRIEF
OVERLAP OF 35-40 PERCENT RH WITH THESE BREEZY WINDS -- SUPPORTING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS
ARE DRY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NC.
..WEINMAN.. 06/18/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN -- RESULTING IN THE BREAKDOWN OF AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE REGION.
...DRY THUNDERSTORMS...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
AMPLE MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN CA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE AROUND 0.75
INCH PW WILL PROMOTE A MIX OF WET-DRY THUNDERSTORMS, QUICK STORM
MOTIONS AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN PRECEDING
DAYS OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASINGLY RECEPTIVE FUELS,
LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS AND LOCALLY STRONG/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE A CONCERN.
...GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
WILL OVERSPREAD A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF 10-15 PERCENT RH AND 15-20
MPH SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ATOP DRY FUELS WILL
FAVOR ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..WEINMAN.. 06/18/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
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